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Northwest Region Preseason XC Rankings 2015 - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Aug 27th 2015, 8:13pm
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NW 1s: North Central boys, Camas girls

 

The Northwest Boys

 

By Paul Schmitz

 


 

Since 2007 the Northwest region has consisted of two constants -- North Central and parity.  In 2014, North Central added to its impressive resume with a third place Nike Cross Nationals finish.   For the best boys cross country program in the country over the past decade, it was their eight straight NXN top eight finish that includes a championship in 2008.  We expect the streak to continue in 2015.  

 

As dominant as North Central has been since 2007, the rest of the Northwest region has been as balanced as any in the country.  During those same eight years, seven teams have joined North Central in Portland:  Summit, Central Catholic, Gig Harbor, Kamiakin, Lewis and Clark, Ferris, and Jesuit.   In 2015 we are predicting that an eighth team joins that list.  

 

1. North Central WA:  Lost arguably the best cross country runner in the country last year, Tanner Anderson to the University of Oregon and one of their other top three runners.  North Central returns five of its top seven.  The nine-time defending Class 3A (of 4 classes) champion continues to be at the top of the regional rankings and is looking towards Nike Cross Nationals.  Led by Justin Janke and a group of experienced runners, they are the team to beat in their class, state and region.  

2. Tahoma WA:  The third place finisher in Washington’s Class 4A meet returns all of its varsity top seven. With experience and depth, this team is looking to make the jump up from eighth place at NXN Northwest last year.    

3. Summit OR:  Summit has a top three that can run with anyone.  The second place Nike Northwest finisher and 17th place team at NXN returns three of its top four (not including Matthew Maton). If the Storm wants to compete for an NXN berth it will need to shore up the back of its lineup.  

4. Mountain View ID:  The large school Idaho champions have five of seven returning.  This is a senior led team that finished ninth in the Northwest region in 2014.  

5. Crater OR:  The Comets are led by Oregon 5A 3,000 champion Walter Vail and fourth place finisher (as a freshman) Andy Monroe.  The second place team in 5A Oregon XC in 2014 finished 18th at NXN Northwest.  

 

Watch List:  

Kamiakin WA

Jesuit OR  

Lewis and Clark WA  

Arlington WA             

Laramie WY

Rocky Mountain ID        

Bozeman, MT  

Hellgate, MT  

West Anchorage AK

Valley Catholic OR     

 

 

The Northwest Girls

 

By Adam Kopet


 

In 2014, the story of the Northwest Regional was the snow in Boise, Idaho. Times and placing were both heavily affected. However, in the end, the top two teams in the region made it to Portland. This year, it appears Oregon and Washington teams could dominate the Region Championship. However, as always, all that could change by November.

 

1. Camas WA: Last year's Northwest Region Champions finished 13th at Nike Cross Nationals without Alexa Efraimson who turned pro before her senior year. This year, the Papermakers return six runners, five of whom are sophomores.

2. Sunset OR: The Apollos were Oregon 6A Cross Country runner-ups a year ago where they lost the state title on the sixth runner tie-breaker. They return their top six runners from their 2014 campaign and are coming off a solid track season that could help them challenge Camas for the Region Championship.

3. Summit OR: A perennial quality team out of Bend, Oregon, led by Olivia Brooks, a three-time 5A State Champion. The Storm return five athletes from their third place Northwest Region finish in 2014.

4. Jesuit OR: The Crusaders return four runners from last year's varsity squad that finished sixth in the region. They, too, had a strong spring campaign on the track and will be looking to build on that success this fall.

5. Timberline ID: The Wolves return a solid core group of runners, led by the duo of Sophie Stands and Jenna Waldo. After a runner-up finish at the Idaho 5A State Championship, Timberline has the potential to do big things this year.

 

Watch List:

Mountlake Terrace WA

St. Mary's Academy OR

South Eugene OR

Holy Names Academy WA

Grant OR

 

 

The Road to Portland and the Introduction of the 2015 Dyestat Nike Regional Rankings. 

 

The DyeStat regional rankings offer a glimpse of who we think has the best chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Ore. on Dec. 6. 

 

As such, the "regions" are established by the nine areas created by Nike for their qualifying purposes. There have been slight variations to this configuration over time but since 2008 they have remained consistent:  New York, given its dominance in the sport over the years, is a region unto itself.  California, given its massive population and success, is also a region and its qualifiers come from a power merge at the conclusion of the CIF state championships. The rest of the country is divided into 7 areas:

 

The Southeast:  Delaware, Maryland, Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and District of Columbia.

The South:  Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi.

The Heartland:  Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

The Midwest:  Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.

The Northeast:  New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire.

The Southwest:  Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada.

The Northwest:  Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii.  

 

These regional meets are open to any high schools from its corresponding states. If there is high demand, selectors ensure that the top teams are guaranteed a spot in the championship race.   The top 2 teams in each of the eight regions and the top 2 teams from the California merge all automatically qualify for NXN.  Nike also invites the top five individuals from the nine regions.  In addition to the automatic qualifiers, there is a committee that selects the next four deserving teams in the nation, bringing the total of participating teams to 22 each year.  

 

Every two weeks on Dyestat, Paul Schmitz (boys) and Adam Kopet (girls) will examine each region and make predictions about which teams are most likely to auto qualify for NXN. It is a big country to cover and we welcome your feedback. DyeStatCal editor Erik Boal handles the California rankings.

 

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4 comment(s)
Sike Mheldon
why is valley catholic on this list. There are at least 7 oregon teams that were not included that are better than them
Paul_Schmitz
Sike - I tried to find one team per region that I thought had the potential to be underrated and could surprise. I looked for young teams or teams from smaller schools to highlight their success or potential. The Watchlist is MOSTLY an extension of the rankings but there is a team or two in each region that made the list for other reasons.
Ryan Campbell
I expect that the Shelley Girls, Idaho's returning 3A State Champions, will make it on this watchlist sooner rather than later. We are not real deep so we need to stay healthy but our top 5 are pretty motivated and had a great summer.
Paul_Schmitz
Thoughts on some NW boys team on the Watchlist:
Jesuit, OR. The 16th place Nike Northwest finisher from last year return their top 6 runners. They are led by by sophomore Josh Schumacher who finished in the top ten in the Oregon large class 1500 and 3200 as a freshman.
Lewis and Clark, WA. Looking to move up the rankings in Washington if their solid 3200 times on the track can translate to the 5K.
Arlington, WA. 5 runners at 10:01 or better in the 3200.
Laramie, WY. The 3 time defending Large class state champions are looking to dominate boys XC running in Wyoming again this year. They return 5 of the top 7 on a team that saw their 7th ranked runner score a scant 18 in team scoring at the state meet. This tough lineup includes Jacob Morgan and Chris Henry, both top 8 finishers in the 3200 and in the state cross country meet last year. Could this be a team ready to travel to Nike Northwest and take their shot?
Rocky Mountain HS, ID. Led by 1600 and 3200 large class champion Michael Slagowski. The Grizzlies had a good year on the track with 4 runners under 10 in the 3200.
Bozeman, MT. The 4 time defending AA Champion in the state of Montana only looks to get stronger in 2015. They return their top five from last year and 4 of those five are underclassmen. If they continue their improvement, they could be in the mix for a Nike berth.
Hellgate, MT. Not only do the Hellgate Knights have an awesome high school name team mascot, they have the best chance in Montana to knock off Bozeman. After a good season on the track (5 went sub 10:05 in the 3200) this senior dominated team has 6 of their top 7 returning from a team that finished 4th in AA Montana last year.
West Anchorage, AK. The 2nd place finishing large school team from Alaska (2nd to Kodiak) is the definition of a team to watch. They return all 7 of their top runners and none of them will be seniors this year. Could this be the team that breaks the NXN bidless streak from Alaska?
Valley Catholic, OR. Our sleeper pick in the Northwest. The 4A (of 6) champions in Oregon return 6 of their top 7 on a team that had all 7 runners finish in the top 30 in team score at state.
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