Boys Regional Rankings - 10/31/19

By Paul Schmitz of DyeStat

The spotlight shines on the Southwest this week with the completion of the state meets in Utah and Colorado. Corner Canyon UT maintains its regional No. 1 spot after a dominant win the Utah 6A final. Dakota Ridge CO joins Corner Canyon as the class of the region. Led by the big three of Connor Ohlson, Jacob White and Ben Morrin, the defending NXR champions and NXN third-place finisher has a chance to repeat those finishes and is once again peaking during championship season.

New to the regional ranking is Niwot CO after its 4A state championship in Colorado. Cruz Culpepper is back to form and took home the individual state title and led his team to the second-fastest 1-5 average of the day, topping Mountain Vista 16:30 to 16:33, which is the reason Mountain Vista slides to fourth. The Southwest has picked up seven at-large bids in the past five years. If Corner Canyon and Dakota Ridge run to potential, any team running close to those two will have a chance at a bid to NXN. 

The race in the Heartland is tighter than it has been in years with no clear favorite and several teams projecting to be within range of a podium spot at NXR. Mounds View MN has been the pick for most of the year, but the competition has closed the gap. Eden Prairie MN took home a convincing win in the vaunted Section 6AA in Minnesota and White Bear Lake MN is also in position to challenge Mounds View in the MSHSL Class AA championship and at Heartland the following week.

Another preseason favorite in the region, Middleton WI, has struggled with injuries in 2019 and will be in the mix if it can field a full lineup. Stevens Point is currently the top team in Wisconsin and has a chance to run with the teams from Minnesota. Nebraska teams have been off of the rankings radar all year, but Lincoln Southwest has a chance to change that. With a down year in Minnesota for boys teams, this could be the year for a team from Nebraska to earn its first NXN bid. Led by state runner-up Tyler Boyle (15:54 5K), Lincoln Southwest will need to close its 76-second 1-5 gap in order to earn a trip to Portland. 

There is a slight shakeup in New York after the Suburban Council Championships. This section includes three of the top five teams in New York: Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake, Guilderland, and Shenendehowa. Guilderland took home the title in this race, followed by Shenendehowa and then Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake, 63 to 67 to 73. Fayetteville-Manlius remains No. 1 after cruising to a dominant victory in its conference meet, scoring only 25 points. The last head-to-head matchup to compare these teams was at the Manhattan Invitational, where F-M didn’t run well, yet still defeated Shenendehowa by 99 points, demonstrating the continued separation between the Hornets and the rest of the field.     

Newbury Park CA might have the highest ceiling in the country with front-runner Nico Young, but Great Oak CA has the highest floor. Led by Gabe Abbes and Christopher Verdugo’s sub-15s on the hilly 2.93-mile Mt. SAC course, Great Oak had 14 athletes run 16 minutes or faster and had 12 runners that would have scored for any other team in this elite race. Bellarmine College Prep CA is starting to run close to preseason projections after a few inconsistent races. BCP has the inside track for the coveted third spot in California. With No. 1 and No. 2 seemingly locks with Great Oak and Newbury Park, if any team can run close to those two in the California merged results, that team will have a shot at an at-large bid to NXN. Bellarmine College Prep’s second-place finish to Great Oak at Mt. SAC was the resume builder that it needed for that consideration. BCP has no seniors in its top five and has the upside to get even better.

In Texas, the 1-5 split with Flower Mound’s team ballooned to 82 seconds and the former No. 1 regional team took third in its regional behind Southlake Carroll and El Paso Americas. Given the top four teams in each region qualify, it could have been a pacing day for Flower Mound, but the finish indicates the parity among the top teams in Texas. The Woodlands, Southlake Carroll and Flower Mound are all within each other’s margin of error and the state and regional champs will likely come from this group of three. If any of them falter, El Paso Americas, Klein and Fayetteville AR are the next tier with a chance to break through. 

After finishing second at NXR Northeast in 2018, Bishop Hendricken RI was one of the surprise teams of the year, finishing fourth at NXN. BH has been inconsistent this season battling injuries and is left out of this edition of the regional top five. If this team gets healthy again it will re-emerge. For now, the mover in the Northeast is New Hampshire Division 2 champion Coe-Brown Academy. This team only has one senior in its top seven and has an outside chance to be the first ever New Hampshire NXN qualifier, and next year it could be a favorite to do so if the growth continues. 

 

SOUTH 

1. The Woodlands TX

2. Southlake Carroll TX

3. Flower Mound TX

4. El Paso Americas TX

5. Fayetteville AR 

 

SOUTHEAST

1. Loudoun Valley VA

2. Severna Park MD

3. Satellite FL

4. Western Albemarle VA

5. Belen Jesuit Prep FL

 

NORTHEAST

1. La Salle Academy RI

2. Christian Brothers Academy NJ

3. La Salle College PA

4. Coe-Brown NH 

5. West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ

 

NEW YORK

1. Fayetteville-Manlius

2. Guilderland

3. Shenendehowa

4. Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake 

5. Fordham Prep 

 

MIDWEST

1. St. Charles East IL

2. Wheaton Warrenville South IL

3. York IL

4. Sandburg IL

5. Brighton MI

 

HEARTLAND

1. Mounds View MN

2. Eden Prairie MN

3. White Bear Lake MN

4. Stevens Point WI

5. Lincoln Southwest NE

 

NORTHWEST

1. Kamiakin WA

2. Jesuit OR

3. Franklin OR

4. Bishop Blanchet WA

5. Tahoma WA

 

SOUTHWEST

1. Corner Canyon UT

2. Dakota Ridge CO

3. Niwot CO

4. Mountain Vista CO

5. Davis UT

 

CALIFORNIA

1. Great Oak

2. Newbury Park

3. Bellarmine College Prep

4. Dublin

5. Clovis North