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Southwest Region Preseason XC Rankings 2016 - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Aug 22nd 2016, 8:39pm
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Southwest 1s: American Fork UT boys and girls 

 

The Southwest Boys 

 

By Paul Schmitz

 

With Utah's impressive feat of putting three teams in the top 11 at NXN last December (American Fork 2nd, Timpanogos 5th, Lone Peak 11th) it's easy to miss that the NXN Southwest regional was won by Colorado's Mountain Vista in a crazy-close finish. The Colorado champions won it 108 to 109 to 109 win over Timpanogos and Lone Peak.  AF snuck in with the second at-large berth from the region, the first time that has ever happened in the Southwest.  In fact, it had just been the third time the region was ever awarded an at-large berth to NXN.  The preseason data points to three things going into the fall: 1) An at-large bid is a near lock and a second bid could again be possible;  2)  Utah is aiming at another powerful year;  3) American Fork is going to be very good. 

In Colorado, Mountain Vista is again the team to beat.  In the largest classification the Golden Eagles will be challenged by Monarch and possibly Boulder.  In 4A Colorado, Palmer Ridge is favored to knock off defending champion Durango.  P-Ridge showed improvement on the track this spring and could compete at the regional level.  In 3A Colorado, defending state champion Alamosa returns all seven of its top runners from a dominant 55-point team at state. 

Elsewhere in the region there is an interesting story line in Arizona.  Brophy College Prep returns the two fastest XC runners in the state in Luke Mason and Drew Burns.  The duo also went 1-2 in the state 3200 meters this spring.  At the same time, defending state champion Desert Vista lost its top twp runners from a year ago to graduation.  In spite of all that, the  pack running and depth of Desert Vista should carry it to a state title defense. Brophy Prep could be very dangerous if it finds some help. 

New Mexico large class state champion and NXN Southwest 13th place finisher from 2015 Hobbs returns its top five.  That is enough to move them onto the watch list, but in a region as deep as the Southwest, Hobbs will have to take a big leap forward to compete.              

 

1. American Fork UT.  The Cavemen opened at No. 1 in the region and No. 2 in the nation to start the 2015 campaign. They struggled with injuries and didn’t put a complete race together until the final meet of the year at NXN. American Fork remains a huge factor in the Southwest and nationally. The team is led by NXN individual champ Casey Clinger, who continued to dominate this spring by winning the Utah state 3,200. McKay Johns (15:41 NXN, 9:13 3,200) and Patrick Parker (15:48 NXN, 9:19 3,200) would be No. 1s on almost every team in the country. If they all stay healthy AF looks certain to keep its seven year streak of top-8 finishes at NXN alive.            

2. Davis UT.  The Darts their NXN appearances streak snapped at five last year with their seventh place finish at NXN Southwest. A new streak could begin in 2016.  The defending state 5A champions return four of their top seven and a whole pack of quality 3,200 runners from the spring to fill the lineup.  They are led by the fifth fastest regional returner, Camren Todd.      

3. Lone Peak UT.  The 11th place NXN finisher in 2015 returns five of their top seven.  Davis gets the nod for second because of slightly better depth, but it's close.   

4. Ogden UT.  With their fifth place finish at NXN Southwest last year, the Tigers were one of the best teams in the country not to make it to Portland.  Preseason they are once again on the bubble in the very deep SW.  They finished second to Timpanogos in Class 4A state last year and this time they are projected slightly ahead of Timp on the the strength of 1-2 punch  Garrett Barton and Travis Feeny, who finished second and fourth in the 4A 3,200 with 9:15 and 9:19.    

5. Mountain Vista CO.  The defending NXN Southwest champions are also the four-time defending large class champions in Colorado.  With four of the top seven returning, they could roll through Colorado but have a tougher challenge against the rest of the region. 

Watch list

Skyridge UT  

Timpanogos UT 

Palmer Ridge CO 

Olympus UT

Desert Vista AZ  

Hobbs NM  

Monarch CO

Pine View UT 

 

 

The Southwest Girls

 

By Adam Kopet

Last year's Southwest regional was full of surprises. While American Fork UT was able to win as the favorite, it was Xavier College Prep AZ that pulled the upset in finishing second. Davis UT, an early national top-10 team, was relegated to third and got in on an at-large invitation to Portland. Desert Vista AZ, another early favorite nationally, was sixth.

This year, American Fork and Desert Vista both stand atop the region rankings, but this year Colorado is playing a bigger role. Two Colorado teams are in the preseason top five and there are another two teams on the watch list. As the season progresses, it is important to remember that many teams in the Southwest primarily compete at altitude. However, many of the top teams have shown a willingness to travel to large meets around the west to test themselves against sea level teams.

 

1. American Fork UT: The Cavemen finished sixth in Portland last year. They lose two from the varsity lineup to graduation but remain strong. Senior Sara Musselman, who can run under 18 minutes for 5K, is the leader.

2. Desert Vista AZ: The Thunder struggled to close out the season last year, but the talent that saw them finish third to nationally ranked teams at the Woodbridge Cross Country Classic remains. Desert Vista returns six runners from last year's squad, led by senior Baylee Jones who ran 10:39 for 3,200 this spring.

3. Mountain Vista CO: The Golden Eagles return the five scoring runners from a team that finished fourth at the Colorado Class 5A state meet, where they finished 20 points out of first. They are led by junior Allison Chipman who finished fourth individually at the state meet.

4. Davis UT: The Darts faltered a little over the close of last season and will be looking to rebound. However, this will be made more difficult by the loss of their No. 1 runner to graduation. They are now led by senior Aubrey Argyle who has quality track and cross country credentials to her name.

5. Broomfield CO: The Eagles are the defending Colorado Class 5A state champions. They appear to have a solid pack of four. If Broomfield can add a fifth runner to that pack, expect them to move up the rankings.

Watch list:

Xavier College Prep AZ

Chandler AZ

Air Academy CO

Rio Rancho NM

Monarch CO

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