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Individual Girls Top 30 9/25 - 2014 Rankings - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Sep 25th 2014, 6:25pm
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By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor

Top Girls Top 30, 9/25



 

1. Hannah DeBalsi, junior, Staples (Connecticut) – Gearing up to open a little later


2. Allie Ostrander, senior, Kenai Central (Alaska) – Legendary in Alaska, never been anyone like her up there


3. Anna Rohrer, senior, Mishawaka (Indiana) – Is she healthy? Don't know yet


4. Hannah Long, senior, Eureka (Missouri) – Off to a great start, including 16:51 at Southern Stampede


5. Stephanie Jenks, junior, Linn-Mar/unattached (Iowa) – For now, only racing is in the pool


6. Destiny Collins, junior, Great Oak (California) – Running great, with a 12-second win at Woodbridge


7. Brianna Schwartz, junior, Shaler Area (Pennsylvania) – Waiting to race in October


8. Anoush Shehadeh, senior, Phillips Academy (Massachusetts) – Can't forget she was fourth at Foot Locker last year


9. Annie Hill, freshman, Glacier (Montana) – Impressive 16:39 (3 mile) in Missoula last weekend


10. Weini Kelati, junior, Heritage (Virginia) – Loads of talent for Eritrean immigrant, more to be revealed at DCXC this weekend


11. Audrey Belf, senior, Seaholm (Michigan) – Won the MSU Spartan and Jackson Invites


12. Lauren Gregory, sophomore, Fort Collins (Colorado) – Crushed everybody at Liberty Bell


13. Fiona O'Keeffe, junior, Davis Senior (California) – First big test this weekend at Stanford


14. Makena Morley, senior, Bigfork (Montana) – Another big race this week at Bob Firman


15. Ella Donaghu, junior, Grant (Oregon) – First big trip is to Stanford where she will face O'Keeffe


16. Lucy Biles, senior, Herriman (Utah) – Big opportunity this weekend at Bob Firman


17. Briana Gess, sophomore, Haddonfield (New Jersey) – So far it's been smooth sailing


18. Katie Rainsberger, junior, Air Academy (Colorado) – Taking care of business, still unbeaten


19. Danielle Jones, senior, Desert Vista (Arizona) – Strong performance for second place at Woodbridge


20. Devin Clark, senior, Smithson Valley (Texas) – Won the UTSA Richard Romo Classic (17:26)


21. Bella Burda, senior, Arlington (New York) – Hard worker getting the job with a couple of big wins already


22. Maryjeanne Gilbert, junior, Notre Dame (Illinois) – Ran a very strong 16:30 at Detweiler Park


23. Madeleine Davison, junior, North Allegheny (Pennsylvania) – Won the PIAA Foundation meet in 18:18


24. Bryn Morley, freshman, Bigfork (Montana) – Still learning the ropes from big sisters, but a big talent


25. Libby Davidson, sophomore, E.C. Glass (Virginia) – Won the adidas XC Challenge in 17:16 (5K)


26. Samantha Ortega, senior, Saugus (California) – Third at Woodbridge


27. Annika Avery, senior, Fayetteville-Manlius (New York) – F-M leader ran 17:21 (2.95 miles) at CNYCL meet this week


28. Alexa Haff, sophomore, Hinsdale Central (Illinois) – Three good wins include a 16:41 at Detweiler


29. Marissa Willliams, senior, Palisades Charter (California) – Sub-16 at Seaside, fourth at Woodbridge


30. Anne Heffernan, senior, St. Ursula Academy (Ohio) – Nice statement win at Trinity/Valkyrie Invite (17:35)


On the bubble: Taylor Werner MO, Anna French MN, Christina Aragon MT, Bethany Hasz MN, Megan Hasz MN, Anna Sophia Keller IL, Sheridan Wilbur RI, Jenna Farrell NY, Eve Glasergreen NJ, Claire Graves CA, Abby Guidry TX

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16 comment(s)
Joe Lanzalotto
Grace Dwyer merits at least a mention on the watch list.
Chris Nickinson

runhappy, on , said:

Time based ranking. While I understand courses vary, maybe a bit of a stretch to say the times are pointless? Not looking for an argument, just trying to understand what went into the top 30 if 7 of the top 20 runners with the fastest times are excluded.


It's an ok baseline to start from but there are too many variables in cross country to only use times for rankings.
Scott Joerger

DougB, on , said:

Actually Graves IS on the bubble. I think this got pushed into the forum just a little before I was done with it.


Ok great - I actually commented on the article before it went to the forum. Graves is only a soph and has already shown a lot of improvement this season. She's on a trajectory to be a national contender in the next couple of years.
DougB

runhappy, on , said:

Doug, thank you for the explanation. It sounds like you put some good time into this. Over the course of the season, I imagine things get clearer as you gather more data. It will be interesting to see how some of these runners perform at Griak this weekend. Some fast girls in both the Gold and Maroon race.



Exactly. So many big races this weekend -- including Griak -- that this picture should become much clearer by Sunday. Anna French, the Hasz twins, can they beat Samantha Ortega from Saugus? Lots to sort out there.

I understand some other girls have run times that put them high on lists ... but I'm more interested in whether they've beaten anyone on this top 30 list.
DougB

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

Methinks they underestimate her.



I'll be honest with you guys. When I found out she was running for Heritage and she stopped to tie her shoes twice and still almost broke a course record ... I thought wow...maybe I should just insert her at No. 1.

But I talked to her new coach on Monday. He doesn't think she took any sort of rest period after World Juniors. That, combined with a massive adjustment to a new life (and whatever led to it, which I have no idea of), makes me feel like maybe she's not that 9:12 girl right now. She could surely get back to that at some point, but I'm not convinced she's going to blow the doors off everybody this fall. So that's why I decided to go a bit conservative with her. Saturday will reveal more when she runs at the DC XC Invite.
GeorgieTheK

cerutty fan, on , said:

9:12 for 3000 is only good for 10th?



Methinks they underestimate her.
cerutty fan
9:12 for 3000 is only good for 10th?
DougB
Well I can tell you how I go about it.

In the preseason I identified 100 of the top girls. The intervening weeks have showed that I missed a couple who were deserving, but I started by looking at what all of them have done so far... who they've beaten and who they've lost to.

Although we do gather top times for rankings, I'm more interested in what a top time means historically on that course. Because not everything is exactly 3 miles or 5K, etc.

I took input from the editors of DyeStatCAL and DyeStatIL on how they see the top individuals in the states they cover.

I ordered most everyone by their accomplishments so far -- winning big invitationals, beating other top runners, etc. Some people haven't raced yet and so I gave them the benefit of the doubt and kept them where they were or bumped them down just a few spots.

I look at several criteria. Recent success. Past history. Proven track times. But it's also still an opinion of where things are right now.

I will be honest and say one source I do touch base with is Bill Meylan and his speed ratings (tullyrunners.com). I'm not sure if I believe in them 100 percent, but I sometimes use them to break deadlocks when I feel a few names are more or less equal.

I welcome the questions and hope it leads to worthwhile discussion.
runhappy
Doug, thank you for the explanation. It sounds like you put some good time into this. Over the course of the season, I imagine things get clearer as you gather more data. It will be interesting to see how some of these runners perform at Griak this weekend. Some fast girls in both the Gold and Maroon race.
Chris Nickinson

runhappy, on , said:

Just look at the top 20 on National Milesplit, #6Kettel, #8Hurley, #10Ilse, #13Florsheim, #15Hofstad,#16 Frazier, #18Platek, #19 Endsley. I just looked at 5K and did this quick so there may be an error or two but a bunch are not in your top 30. This is fine if you have another method other than the times (course variation) but just curious.


Which Milesplit lists are you looking at? Their time rankings database or the thought out subjective rankings? Time based rankings for XC are basically pointless.
runhappy
Time based ranking. While I understand courses vary, maybe a bit of a stretch to say the times are pointless? Not looking for an argument, just trying to understand what went into the top 30 if 7 of the top 20 runners with the fastest times are excluded.
DougB

Scott Joerger, on , said:

Surprised that Claire Graves isn't at least on the bubble given that she finished just 4 seconds behind Williams at Woodbridge and 3 seconds behind Ortega at Great Cow.



Actually Graves IS on the bubble. I think this got pushed into the forum just a little before I was done with it.
DougB
Umm... like who?
runhappy
Just look at the top 20 on National Milesplit, #6Kettel, #8Hurley, #10Ilse, #13Florsheim, #15Hofstad,#16 Frazier, #18Platek, #19 Endsley. I just looked at 5K and did this quick so there may be an error or two but a bunch are not in your top 30. This is fine if you have another method other than the times (course variation) but just curious.
runhappy
Some of the top runners on milesplit are not on this list. Just curious as to the methodology.
Scott Joerger
Surprised that Claire Graves isn't at least on the bubble given that she finished just 4 seconds behind Williams at Woodbridge and 3 seconds behind Ortega at Great Cow.
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