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Individual Girls Top 30 10/9 - 2014 Rankings - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Oct 9th 2014, 7:28pm
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By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor

The Girls Top 30, 10/9



 

1. Allie Ostrander, senior, Kenai Central (Alaska) – Crushed her state meet record by 44 seconds


2. Hannah DeBalsi, junior, Staples (Connecticut) – Expected to start Oct. 16; if she's No. 1, she'll have to earn it


3. Destiny Collins, junior, Great Oak (California) – Leading the nation's top team, ran great at Nike Pre-Nationals


4. Fiona O'Keeffe, junior, Davis Senior (California) – Was sensational at the Stanford Invitational, running 16:40


5. Hannah Long, senior, Eureka (Missouri) – Had a very successful September


6. Makena Morley, senior, Bigfork (Montana) – Course record at the Bob Firman Invitational


7. Audrey Belf, senior, Seaholm (Michigan) – Won by more than a minute at the Waterford Mott Fall Classic


8. Weini Kelati, junior, Heritage (Virginia) – Broke course record by 47 seconds last week at Loudoun Co Champs


9. Jessica Lawson, sophomore, Corning (New York) – Showed dominance in huge win at McQuaid Invitational


10. Annie Hill, freshman, Glacier (Montana) – HS career off to a roaring start


11. Lauren Gregory, sophomore, Fort Collins (Colorado) – Gearing up for a run at her second state title


12. Devin Clark, senior, Smithson Valley (Texas) – Ran 17:10.5 at the McNeil Invitational


13. Brianna Schwartz, junior, Shaler Area (Pennsylvania) – Expected to open at Slippery Rock


14. Libby Davidson, sophomore, E.C. Glass (Virginia) – Won the Great American XC Festival with 17:07


15. Samantha Ortega, senior, Saugus (California) – Got a big win on the road at Roy Griak in Minnesota


16. Andrea Masterson, senior, Lakeside (Washington) – Crushed the field at the Curtis Invitational (17:13)


17. Ella Donaghu, junior, Grant (Oregon) – Placed second at the Stanford Invitational


18. Lucy Biles, senior, Herriman (Utah) – Second to Morley at Bob Firman, came back with a win at Park City


19. Briana Gess, sophomore, Haddonfield (New Jersey) – Got a dominant win at Bowdoin Park (18:22)


20. Katie Rainsberger, junior, Air Academy (Colorado) – Won the Desert Twilight/Nike SW Preview meet


21. Madeleine Davison, junior, North Allegheny (Pennsylvania) – A couple of dominant wins so far in Pennnsylvania


22. Danielle Jones, senior, Desert Vista (Arizona) – Right behind Rainsberger at Desert Twilight


23. Anne Heffernan, senior, St. Ursula Academy (Ohio) – Ran 17:00 for three miles at Wheaton North Falcon Classic in Illinois


24. Maryjeanne Gilbert, junior, Notre Dame (Illinois) – Another impressive win at Peoria Central Invitational


25. Bella Burda, senior, Arlington (New York) – Won by more than a minute at the John Killian Memorial Invite


26. Marissa Sheva, senior, Pennridge (Pennsylvania) – Won the Paul Short Run in 17:34


27. Aubrey Argyle, sophomore, Davis (Utah) – Right on Biles' heels at Bob Firman


28. Paige Hofstad, junior, New Braunfels (Texas) – Won the Nike South Invitational


29. Claire Graves, sophomore, Citrus Valley (California): Won by a minute and a half at the Brea Olinda Invitational


30. Alexa Haff, sophomore, Hinsdale Central (Illinois) – Undefeated in Illinois


On the bubble: Marissa Willliams CA, Bryn Morley MT, Mady Clahane PA, Megan Hasz MN, Bethany Hasz MN, Catherine Pagano NJ, Amy Davis WI, Sarah Kettel MI, Ryen Frazier NC, Eve Glasergreen NJ, Dominique Clairmonte OH, Christina Aragon MT, Taylor Werner MO, Anna Sophia Keller IL, Abby Gray TX, Emily Hamlin ID, Emma Grace Hurley GA, Kelsey Potts PA, Anna Rohrer IN, Stephanie Jenks IA, Anoush Shehadeh MA, Annika Avery NY, Amaris Tyynismaa AL

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31 comment(s)
Bill Meylan
Just looked at Brianna Schwartz opening race at Slippery Rock ... some uncertainty, but I gave it a rating of 152 (and that may be a point or two low) ... reminds me of Tessa Barrett last year, so I'll be watching.

The girl's individual list has excellent depth of quality for this point in the season ... Also looks like the quality will be split between NXN and Footlocker ... a few a of the girls could do both.
DontStopPre

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

I did not say that most coaches casually disregard rankings. I said if I were coaching they wouldn't be that important to me except where I could use them to motivate. I also said that I thought some coaches were afraid that the rankings could hurt their at large chances.


Yes I wasn't 100% responding to your post but more using it as a jumping off point. I know "casually disregard rankings" never came from you.

As someone who has coached and a person who nearly all of my circle of friends do or have coached, I can say that coaches treat rankings with a WIDE spectrum. Some follow it closely and let it get under their skin when they feel dissed while others go through an entire season trying to avoid ever seeing them.
Coach Mostert

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

I did not say that most coaches casually disregard rankings. I said if I were coaching they wouldn't be that important to me except where I could use them to motivate. I also said that I thought some coaches were afraid that the rankings could hurt their at large chances.

I agree with Joe in the fact that I not only use rankings as just one comparison tool between us and our competitors, but also as a BIG motivator for my boys.
I can appreciate Rob's and Bill's speed ratings as one comparative tool (among several) that I use. :)
Joe Lanzalotto

watchout, on , said:

The folks on the committee all have their own opinion; rankings are not what determines at large invites, other things matter MUCH more (such as head to head results and how Team A ran at their State meet and how Team B compares directly to Team C, how close they were at NXR to the winning team/2nd place team, wins over teams already in the NXN field, etc.)


The issue is not so much what the committee thinks but what coaches might think the committee will act on.
watchout

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

Bill, what you are describing is entirely reasonable. I just don't think the rankings are the be-all and end-all which agrees with what you have said. I don't think that Doug or Rob think their rankings are important unto themselves but I just shake my head when discussion of the rankings supersedes discussion of the actual performances.

Were I fortunate enough to be a coach I would read the rankings with some interest and more use them as a motivating factor for my athletes but I wouldn't take time to argue with the rankers about where my team stood. At the end of the day they do run the races which is all that really matters. Unfortunately I think that some coaches are concerned that rankings could hurt their chances for at large NXN spots. I would hope that the people on the committee wouldn't go there and I don't think they do.


The folks on the committee all have their own opinion; rankings are not what determines at large invites, other things matter MUCH more (such as head to head results and how Team A ran at their State meet and how Team B compares directly to Team C, how close they were at NXR to the winning team/2nd place team, wins over teams already in the NXN field, etc.)
Joe Lanzalotto

DontStopPre, on , said:

I agree it's a pity that rankings discussions often get more "play" than actual race discussions. However I view it as part of human nature. We all have opinions, and unfortunately many or most people believe their opinions trumps others, therefore many/most people are quick to share their opinions. Racing itself can't be debated since a finishers time/place can't be debated. Plus it's sort of fun to debate rankings, a nice distraction from the daily grind.

Regarding how coaches view rankings, I agree most coaches don't lose sleep over them but to say they casually disregard them I believe is far feom the case! Coaches have too much at stake to stomach others incorrectly categorize a great performance as merely good or a good performance as sub par.

I have no clue whether the NXN at-large committee looks at rankings throughout the season but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did. I would hope that tgey don't let them sway their opinions!


I did not say that most coaches casually disregard rankings. I said if I were coaching they wouldn't be that important to me except where I could use them to motivate. I also said that I thought some coaches were afraid that the rankings could hurt their at large chances.
DontStopPre
I agree it's a pity that rankings discussions often get more "play" than actual race discussions. However I view it as part of human nature. We all have opinions, and unfortunately many or most people believe their opinions trumps others, therefore many/most people are quick to share their opinions. Racing itself can't be debated since a finishers time/place can't be debated. Plus it's sort of fun to debate rankings, a nice distraction from the daily grind.

Regarding how coaches view rankings, I agree most coaches don't lose sleep over them but to say they casually disregard them I believe is far feom the case! Coaches have too much at stake to stomach others incorrectly categorize a great performance as merely good or a good performance as sub par.

I have no clue whether the NXN at-large committee looks at rankings throughout the season but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did. I would hope that tgey don't let them sway their opinions!
Joe Lanzalotto

Bill Meylan, on , said:

Joe ... You are not alone in those sentiments ... I prefer head-to-head comparisons whenever possible.

Track uses a leaderboard to rank the speed of individual runners ... I frequently use the DyeStat and MileSplit leaderboards as a great source of helpful information ... Leaderboards ignore head-to-head results to reduce the comparison to plain race times that are accurate and precise to a hundredth of a second.

But I also know from experience that track race times are not necessarily equal ... For example, a 9:00.00 3200 meter time run at Arcadia under excellent conditions with great competition does not equate with a 9:00.00 time run under cool breezy conditions in New York, New Jersey, Washington or Illinois (at least, not IMO if I was using those performances to wager on an upcoming race) ... Handicapping an upcoming race and evaluating what happened in the past are two separate considerations.

Using statistics to evaluate cross country is not universally appreciated, especially when results are made public and people don’t like the outcome (some coaches really dislike having their teams evaluated publicly by somebody other than themselves ... I heard complaints from two NXN coaches this week alone).

The method I use is mostly math & statistics, but is also part "art" ... Some subjectivity is required, and how statistics are applied also includes some subjective decisions ... the "art" part is simply experience and learning how to apply the math to various situations.

The method is imperfect and flawed by definition because the statistics are generated by human performance which is imperfect and variably ... The statistics try to smooth the imperfections and inconsistencies as much possible, but that can never ever be eliminated ... But it can do it "good enough" to allow a decent speed comparison of different cross country races ... It works decently for both individuals and teams despite the flaws ... And the interest is much higher than was ever expected.

Sport is competition ... and reducing performance to statistics offends some people ... Some people prefer rankings based only on human subjectivity ... some want statistics ... some want both ... In the niche viewership of high school cross country, all have an interest.

Speed is just one of various handicapping considerations ... I would never wager on a track outcome based solely on a track leaderboard ... ditto for cross country and my speed ratings ... But ranking XC individuals by this method is a useful and insightful tool.


Bill, what you are describing is entirely reasonable. I just don't think the rankings are the be-all and end-all which agrees with what you have said. I don't think that Doug or Rob think their rankings are important unto themselves but I just shake my head when discussion of the rankings supersedes discussion of the actual performances.

Were I fortunate enough to be a coach I would read the rankings with some interest and more use them as a motivating factor for my athletes but I wouldn't take time to argue with the rankers about where my team stood. At the end of the day they do run the races which is all that really matters. Unfortunately I think that some coaches are concerned that rankings could hurt their chances for at large NXN spots. I would hope that the people on the committee wouldn't go there and I don't think they do.
Bill Meylan

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

No, you don't weigh head to head too much; you've got it right. Its what the sport is all about. Times are fine but would you rather break a CR and finished second or be 10 seconds off the CR and win? Its an easy one for me and this business of making a cottage industry out of equating times from one course to another fails to grasp the essence of XC, IMO ...

I wasn't putting down either of your rankings. I just don't like the idea that XC has to be analyzed to a statistical gnat. It gets old IMO. Its almost as though the performances cannot be compared so we have to try. I'm okay with that to a point but to me some of this is way over the top and that applies mostly to the team rankings not the individuals.


Joe ... You are not alone in those sentiments ... I prefer head-to-head comparisons whenever possible.

Track uses a leaderboard to rank the speed of individual runners ... I frequently use the DyeStat and MileSplit leaderboards as a great source of helpful information ... Leaderboards ignore head-to-head results to reduce the comparison to plain race times that are accurate and precise to a hundredth of a second.

But I also know from experience that track race times are not necessarily equal ... For example, a 9:00.00 3200 meter time run at Arcadia under excellent conditions with great competition does not equate with a 9:00.00 time run under cool breezy conditions in New York, New Jersey, Washington or Illinois (at least, not IMO if I was using those performances to wager on an upcoming race) ... Handicapping an upcoming race and evaluating what happened in the past are two separate considerations.

Using statistics to evaluate cross country is not universally appreciated, especially when results are made public and people don’t like the outcome (some coaches really dislike having their teams evaluated publicly by somebody other than themselves ... I heard complaints from two NXN coaches this week alone).

The method I use is mostly math & statistics, but is also part "art" ... Some subjectivity is required, and how statistics are applied also includes some subjective decisions ... the "art" part is simply experience and learning how to apply the math to various situations.

The method is imperfect and flawed by definition because the statistics are generated by human performance which is imperfect and variably ... The statistics try to smooth the imperfections and inconsistencies as much possible, but that can never ever be eliminated ... But it can do it "good enough" to allow a decent speed comparison of different cross country races ... It works decently for both individuals and teams despite the flaws ... And the interest is much higher than was ever expected.

Sport is competition ... and reducing performance to statistics offends some people ... Some people prefer rankings based only on human subjectivity ... some want statistics ... some want both ... In the niche viewership of high school cross country, all have an interest.

Speed is just one of various handicapping considerations ... I would never wager on a track outcome based solely on a track leaderboard ... ditto for cross country and my speed ratings ... But ranking XC individuals by this method is a useful and insightful tool.
DougB
I don't have any special formulas for putting the individual rankings together.

I've seen a lot of the kids in person -- not all of them -- and studied what they've done and tried to assign some value to recent performances, especially. Mostly just in my own head, though.

Head to head matters most of all, but it's not always absolute. Annie Hill of Montana beat Makena Morley a few weeks back. Then the next week, Morley broke a record at the Bob Firman meet and Hill was off or did something less significant. And I stuck with Morley, a veteran who I've seen a few times and who I think is REALLY good. And just hours after I posted those rankings, Hill beat Morley again! So I guessed and was wrong.

Other times I think they've been pretty sharp. Maton (2) over Thomet (10) over Alhamra (13) came off with the sort of outcome that seemed about right on Saturday.

But I'm always willing to hear what others have to say about how they would rank the athletes.
DougB

MatthewXCountry, on , said:

Wow the girls are deep this year. Based on the relative times of the people on your watch list, its fair to say that you think that all the girls in the bottom half of your rankings, 15-30, are separated by less than 7 seconds! Is that a fair assessment.



Absolutely. I think it gets very tight after the first 15 or so. Lots of talented girls this year and it seems like new names are popping up every week.
Joe Lanzalotto

watchout, on , said:

I am pretty sure Doug's most important criteria is head to head and that he doesn't do all that much course comparison analysis (and shouldn't, because top individuals are different than top team runners in that most of a team's runners aren't winning races and therefore how they relate to the rest of the pack tells a much greater story). So you probably shouldn't put down Doug's individual rankings just because of how I do my team rankings - they are and should be COMPLETELY separate in method and outcome.


I wasn't putting down either of your rankings. I just don't like the idea that XC has to be analyzed to a statistical gnat. It gets old IMO. Its almost as though the performances cannot be compared so we have to try. I'm okay with that to a point but to me some of this is way over the top and that applies mostly to the team rankings not the individuals.
watchout

Joe Lanzalotto, on , said:

No, you don't weigh head to head too much; you've got it right. Its what the sport is all about. Times are fine but would you rather break a CR and finished second or be 10 seconds off the CR and win? Its an easy one for me and this business of making a cottage industry out of equating times from one course to another fails to grasp the essence of XC, IMO.


I am pretty sure Doug's most important criteria is head to head and that he doesn't do all that much course comparison analysis (and shouldn't, because top individuals are different than top team runners in that most of a team's runners aren't winning races and therefore how they relate to the rest of the pack tells a much greater story). So you probably shouldn't put down Doug's individual rankings just because of how I do my team rankings - they are and should be COMPLETELY separate in method and outcome.
Joe Lanzalotto

MatthewXCountry, on , said:

It appears to me that head to head results might matter a bit less to you than they do to me (as compared to times). Jones beat Ortega two weeks prior to these rankings and Williams also beat Graves in that race.

While I agree Ortega got a big win on the road, which is always tough to do, how strong was that field? I don't see anyone even in your honorable mention list in the race results. Jones was beat in Arizona by Rainsberger, but given the times I think both should probably be ahead of Ortega, but that is just my opinion. I understand that this is all subjective. Jones was beat by a wide margin at pre Nats, but that was by the #3 runner in the country.

The following week both Williams and Graves dominated weaker fields at Bell Jeff (Williams +1:37) and Brea Olindo (Graves +1:50, +1:23 over merged) respectively. I'm not sure what in those two performances reversed the scales.

I probably weigh head to head results a bit too much. Just an observation.


No, you don't weigh head to head too much; you've got it right. Its what the sport is all about. Times are fine but would you rather break a CR and finished second or be 10 seconds off the CR and win? Its an easy one for me and this business of making a cottage industry out of equating times from one course to another fails to grasp the essence of XC, IMO.
MatthewXCountry
It appears to me that head to head results might matter a bit less to you than they do to me (as compared to times). Jones beat Ortega two weeks prior to these rankings and Williams also beat Graves in that race.

While I agree Ortega got a big win on the road, which is always tough to do, how strong was that field? I don't see anyone even in your honorable mention list in the race results. Jones was beat in Arizona by Rainsberger, but given the times I think both should probably be ahead of Ortega, but that is just my opinion. I understand that this is all subjective. Jones was beat by a wide margin at pre Nats, but that was by the #3 runner in the country.

The following week both Williams and Graves dominated weaker fields at Bell Jeff (Williams +1:37) and Brea Olindo (Graves +1:50, +1:23 over merged) respectively. I'm not sure what in those two performances reversed the scales.

I probably weigh head to head results a bit too much. Just an observation.
watchout
If you merge the FLN and NXN results (since the courses run very similar in good conditions) -- or just take the top 15 from each race, which works out to be the same thing -- then the spread from #15-30 in those actual races was only 12-13 seconds, and races tend to spread fields out, so I would say a spread of ~5-10 seconds should be expected for #15-30, if last year is any indication.
MatthewXCountry
Wow the girls are deep this year. Based on the relative times of the people on your watch list, its fair to say that you think that all the girls in the bottom half of your rankings, 15-30, are separated by less than 7 seconds! Is that a fair assessment.
RunSpokane
Yes. And after watching her at Richland, I think when they do race it will be very exciting.
DougB
RunSpokane -- That's a fair question. She obviously ran great yesterday. I'll have to study her a bit more. She certainly joins the conversation. Do you think she's the second best in the state behind Masterson?
RunSpokane
How does Lindsey Bradley from Richland (WA) compare to some of these girls? She ran 17:38 at Richland for number 3 all-time on the course. Number 1 and 2 were Katie Knight and Alexa Efraimson in 2012 at 17:16 and 17:22.
DougB
I'm not so sure Kelati was as dominant as expected. Is a four-second win over Annika Avery -- and slightly slower than Lawson -- really worth better than No. 8?
DougB
I actually think she might tear it up tomorrow.
watchout

Bill Meylan, on , said:

I see no reason to rank Weini Kalati higher until she does something more exceptional on a cross country course than the girls ranked above her ... and the girls ranked above her are all really good!


Exactly.

Kalati ran GREAT in track. She hasn't yet run that same level in XC, though she hasn't faced the kind of competition that might push her to do so. Perhaps Manhattan will be a good opportunity for her -- shorter course, seeing more kids running fast, etc. However, we might have to wait until the VA State meet or even FLS/NXN-SE to see her really run a good XC mark.
Bill Meylan

DougB, on , said:

Gess is very good. I get that. I don't think she's done anything earth-shattering just yet. I tried to reward recent performances a bit more and move out some "placeholders" like Rohrer and Jenks who haven't done anything.


As for Kelati, I expect this is the weekend she makes the big move. You guys would rate her No. 1? That may be the case. The reason I had for being more cautious with her does seem to be disappearing.


I see no reason to rank Weini Kalati higher until she does something more exceptional on a cross country course than the girls ranked above her ... and the girls ranked above her are all really good!

The order in which I might bet the girls in pari-mutuel race could differ :)
DougB

Coach Stucki, on , said:

I'm curious as to how close Alyssa Snyder(Park City) , Marlee Mitchell(Bingham) and Kashley Carter(Juab) of Utah were to receiving consideration.



I think the Bob Firman was an important meet in that area to stake your claim for a spot in the rankings. Snyder was 6th, Mitchell was 8th. Emily Hamlin, who beat them both and subsequently had a great meet at Sunfair in Washington, made the bubble group.

At this point, I'd have to put Carter behind Kate Hunter of Provo, who beat her at Nebo. Carter was 28 seconds behind Biles (No. 18) at Park City.

They are probably all in the top 100, but probably in the second 50 IMO.
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