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National Team Rankings - 11/27 Girls - XC - DyeStat

Published by
DyeStat.com   Nov 27th 2014, 10:16am

F-M, Great Oak on collision course at NXN?

By Rob Monroe

Girls Top 40, 11/27

1. Fayetteville-Manlius NY (1): New York A State Champion
2. Great Oak CA (2): CIF Southern Section D1 Champion
3. Carmel IN (3): Indiana State Champion; NXN Midwest Champion
4. Naperville North IL (9): Illinois 3A State Champion; NXN Midwest Runner-up
5. Palatine IL (22): Illinois 3A State Runner-up; NXN Midwest third place
6. American Fork UT (6): Utah 5A State Champion; NXN Southwest Champion
7. Green Hope NC (5): North Carolina 4A State Champion
8. Saugus CA (14): CIF Southern Section D2 Champion
9. Campolindo CA (39): CIF North Coast Section D3 Champoin
10. La Salle Academy RI (11): New England Champion
11. Desert Vista AZ (4): Arizona D1 State Champion; NXN Southwest Runner-up
12. Glenbard West IL (23): Illinois 3A State third place; DNS NXN Midwest
13. Hebron TX (13): Texas UIL 6A State Champion; NXN South Champion
14. Wayzata MN (8): Minnesota 2A State Champion; NXN Heartland Champion
15. Saratoga Springs NY (16): New York Federations Champion
16. Pennsbury PA (12): Pennsylvania 3A State Champion
17. Coe-Brown NH (17): New England Runner-up
18. Birmingham Seaholm MI (10): Michigan D1 State Champion; NXN Midwest fourth place
19. Unionville PA (20): Pennsylvania 3A State Runner-up
20. Blacksburg VA (7): Virginia 3A State Champion
21. Oakton VA (NR): Virginia 6A State Champion
22. Camas WA (33): Washington 4A State Champion; NXN Northwest Champion
23. Capistrano Valley CA (36): CIF Southern Section D2 Runner-up
24. Marcus TX (15): Texas UIL 6A State Runner-up; NXN South Runner-up
25. Summit OR (19): Oregon 5A State Champion; NXN Northwest third place
26. Hinsdale Central IL (25): Illinois 3A State fourth place; DNS NXN Midwest
27. Davis UT (18): Utah 5A State Runner-up; NXN Southwest third place
28. Shenendehowa NY (NR): New York Federations Runner-up
29. Coeur D'Alene ID (24): Idaho 5A State Champion; NXN Northwest Runner-up
30. Tolland CT (27): New England third place
31. Lake Braddock Secondary VA (NR): Virginia 6A State Runner-up
32. Traverse City Central MI (31): Michigan D1 State Runner-up; DNS NXN Midwest
33. Morristown Hamblen West TN (34): Tennessee 3A State Champion
34. Winter Park FL (NR): Florida 4A State Champion
35. Willmar MN (30): Minnesota 2A State third place; NXN Heartland Runner-up
36. Monarch CO (38): Colorado 5A State Runner-up; NXN Southwest fourth place
37. Fort Collins CO (37): Colorado 5A State Champion; NXN Southwest fifth place
38. Cardinal O'Hara PA (40): Pennsylvania 3A State third place
39. Palos Verdes CA (35): CIF Southern Section D3 Champion
40. Serrano CA (NR): CIF Southern Section D2 third place

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More news

 Final National Team Rankings - 12/11 Boys - XC - DyeStat
National Team Rankings - 11/27 Boys - XC - DyeStat
11 comment(s)
 watchout

alaska55, on , said:

I read your primer and you said " In other words, consistency plays a factor. No egrarious examples of that in the rankings this week, though." but yet you had Blacksburg dropping from 7 to 20. Yes they finished 3 in the merge behind Oakton and Lake Braddock, but for 1st time virginia ran in their new 6 sections 1A thru 6A. 1A, 2A, 3A ran on friday. 4A,5A, and 6A ran on saturday. Friday was very windy and saturday was calm, plus blacksburg had no competion to worry about where Lake Braddock and Oakton went head to head.

Read more: News - National Team Rankings - 11/27 Girls - XC - DyeStat http://www.runnerspa...8#ixzz3L5CqTnaa


Yes, it is quite understandable that Blacksburg didn't look as good as the schools in bigger classes. But they were ranked based on what they had done to date, in particular what they've done fairly recently, and especially what they ran at the state meet.

Blacksburg dropped to #20 because they hadn't really shown what they were capable of since Great American (when they were still ranked in or near the US Top 5, IIRC, as they had been all season). Because of their light racing schedule and/or lack of competition (and resulting unimpressive times in comparison to what they showed capable of, and what other teams in more competitive situations were donig), they've been dropping ever since. These rankings don't necessarily mean I think (thought) that there were 19 better teams, just that there were 19 teams running better at that point.

Had I done an update to the rankings to include NXN-SE results, obviously they would move back up (they beat #7 Green Hope for the second time this year, with this being their first real test since they smoked La Salle, Green Hope and Saratoga at Great American). But, these rankings were before NXN-SE, when they only real race of note since Great American was their state meet, which as you point out wasn't conducive to good times (or at least, it wasn't necessary to push themselves like they did at Great American or NXN-SE).
alaska55
I read your primer and you said " In other words, consistency plays a factor. No egrarious examples of that in the rankings this week, though." but yet you had Blacksburg dropping from 7 to 20. Yes they finished 3 in the merge behind Oakton and Lake Braddock, but for 1st time virginia ran in their new 6 sections 1A thru 6A. 1A, 2A, 3A ran on friday. 4A,5A, and 6A ran on saturday. Friday was very windy and saturday was calm, plus blacksburg had no competion to worry about where Lake Braddock and Oakton went head to head.

Read more: News - National Team Rankings - 11/27 Girls - XC - DyeStat http://www.runnerspa...8#ixzz3L5CqTnaa
watchout
My own UNOFFICIAL California Power Merge (I probably use a different # of teams, though that won't change who are the top four or their order):

68 Great Oak (Division 1 Champion)
119 Saugus (Division 2 Champion)
135 Capistrano Valley (Division 2 Runner-up)
176 Redondo Union (Division 2 third place)
194 Serrano (Division 2 fourth place)
225 Palos Verdes (Division 3 Champion)
240 Bella Vista (Division 1 Runner-up)
241 Campolindo (Division 3 Runner-up)
272 Simi Valley (Division 2 fifth place)
(and 13 more teams)
watchout
I think there are probably too many good teams out there for many, if any, #4s to get invited. Not even a guarantee that Shenendehowa gets in. I don't think Suffern will, though -- half a minute per runner behind Saratoga (68-140 score wise) and 13 seconds/runner behind Shenendehowa (102-140 score wise), when there are lots of other good teams from other regions? Seems unlikely.

The only invites I'd call pretty "safe" right now is the Palatine IL girls and Liverpool NY boys.
watchout
NY Girls:
34 Fayetteville-Manlius -- US#1
68 Saratoga Springs -- US#15
102 Shenendehowa -- US#28
140 Suffern
160 Elmira District
164 Corning
218 East Aurora
218 Sachem East
247 Guilderland
281 Syosset

NE Girls:
84 Unionville PA -- US#19
144 Coe-Brown NH -- US#17
160 La Salle Academy RI -- US#10
168 Red Bank Catholic NJ
168 Phillips Andover MA
179 Pennsbury PA -- US#16
190 Hillsborough NJ
217 Tolland CT -- US#30
243 Ridgewood NJ
275 Cardinal O'Hara PA -- US#38
BoyfromIten
Could Suffern ladies get an At-Large?
watchout
Southeast Girls Results

Results - Top 10 Individuals
1 Rachel McArthur 17 Una-McArthur 17:16.0
2 Elly Henes 16 Western Cary 17:17.0 1
3 Morgan Ilse 15 Ave Maria XC 17:21.7 2
4 Taylor Cuneo 18 Una-Cuneo-Tn 17:27.3
5 Kate Murphy 17 Lake Braddoc 17:31.6 3
6 Rafella Gibbons 18 Park TC 17:39.4 4
7 Nora McUmber 15 B-Cc Running Club 17:46.6 5
8 Reagan Freeman 15 The Long Green Line 17:49.0 6
9 Bonnie Angermeier 15 Blacksburg 17:49.3 7
10 Jennifer Fleming 15 Blacksburg 17:55.5 8

Results - Top 10 Teams
1 Blacksburg 86 7 8 11 13 47 58 67 (US#20 Blacksburg VA)
Total Time: 1:30:55.20
Average: 18:11.04
2 Western Cary XC Club 106 1 16 21 23 45 60 68 (US#7 Green Hope NC)
Total Time: 1:31:18.40
Average: 18:15.68
3 Lake Braddock XC Club 143 3 20 28 33 59 75 114 (US#31 Lake Braddock VA)
Total Time: 1:32:13.70
Average: 18:26.74
4 Oakton 176 10 17 24 56 69 80 85 (US#21 Oakton VA)
Total Time: 1:33:15.80
Average: 18:39.16
5 Ave Maria XC 201 2 29 34 65 71 73 112 (Marist GA)
Total Time: 1:33:10.40
Average: 18:38.08
6 Morristown Trail Runners 217 25 27 46 57 62 76 91 (US#33 Morristown West TN)
Total Time: 1:34:10.40
Average: 18:50.08
7 Bulldog Cross Country Clu 225 30 35 39 42 79 109 131 (The Bolles School FL)
Total Time: 1:34:19.80
Average: 18:51.96
8 The Creek XC Club 228 9 15 44 77 83 93 119 (Padua DE)
Total Time: 1:34:07.40
Average: 18:49.48
9 Park TC 240 4 37 40 54 105 145 (US#34 Winter Park FL)
Total Time: 1:34:01.70
Average: 18:48.34
10 Gibbons Distance Club 287 19 38 48 88 94 108 (Cardinal Gibbons NC)
Total Time: 1:35:30.40
Average: 19:06.08
watchout
First AQ teams of the day announced: Green Hope NC and Blacksburg VA finish 1-2 at the Southeast.
watchout
Also, first girls race of the day (Division 2) underway at the California State meet.

Capistrano Valley got out to a good start to lead at the first split with 56 points, followed closely by Redondo Union (60) and Serrano third with 86. Leads just passed the 2nd split; Capistrano Valley still holds the lead with 73 points, but Saugus is putting themselves in position to challenge as they come through in second at the 2 mile mark (104) ... Redondo Union third with 105.


EDIT - team results from the first two girls races:

Division 2 Girls:
62 Saugus (92:15 / 0:51) -- US#8
73 Capistrano Valley (92:43 / 0:39) -- US#23
105 Redondo Union (92:32 / 1:50)
114 Serrano (93:33 / 0:28) -- US#40
167 Simi Valley (94:34 / 0:41)

Division 3 Girls:
85 Palos Verdes (93:51 / 1:13) -- US#39
95 Campolindo (93:31 / 1:42) -- US#9
121 Esperanza (95:09 / 0:49)
watchout
Shouldn't be too long before we get official results from the first regional today (NXN-SE).

In the mean time, here were the top teams scores at the 2k mark -

  • 70 Green Hope NC -- US#7
  • 151 Blacksburg VA -- US#20
  • 163 Morristown West TN -- US#33
  • 167 Winter Park FL -- US#34
  • 168 Lake Braddock VA -- US#31
    -------------------
  • 214 Oakton VA -- US#21
  • 235 Cardinal Gibbons NC
  • 247 Riverside SC
  • 264 Bolles FL
    -------------------
  • 301 Marist GA
  • 318 Padua DE
  • 327 Assumption KY
  • 335 Sacred Heart Academy KY
  • 352 Houston TN
  • 365 Walter Johnson MD
watchout
Necessary primer to understand the rankings:

1. Sometimes the order at the NXN Regional meet is not the order in the rankings. This is because I include any athlete that ran Varsity for the team in the state meet, NXN Regional meet, and NXN National meet. Case in point is Summit OR, who is ranked ahead of the NW Runner-up Coeur d'Alene because I include their #5 (Taylor Vandenborn) in the rankings, although she didn't race at NXN Northwest. This is a policy I have had since the very first year I did rankings for DyeStat (2007).

2. Rankings are NOT based solely on what happened at the latest race for the team. This is the post season, I am looking at who runs well most importantly at their latest meet, but also giving credit to running well (or not) at previous championship meets (at this point, the State meet). In other words, consistency plays a factor. No egrarious examples of that in the rankings this week, though.

3. If a runner does NOT run varsity at the state meet or beyond, they are not really factored into the ranking. Again, can't think of any obvious examples for that on the girls side.


Hopefully that answers the biggest questions some of you guys might have. Any more questions, as always, feel free to ask on here and I'll do my best to answer.
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