Editor’s note: SteveU’s individual rankings (originally Foot Locker Favorites) began appearing on DyeStat.com eight years ago and are continuing with DyeTrack.com. The rankings have always been based on distance-running accomplishments to date, with an emphasis on XC and 3200/2M track results, rather than a projection of how the Foot Locker Finals or NXN Finals will turn out (predictions run later in the season). As the season progresses, weight is shifted from career credentials to most recent accomplishments. With the transition between the closing of DyeStat.com on ESPN to the launch of DyeTrack.com, no preseason top 25 was published. This initial 2012 ranking, however, includes unpublished preseason assessments (in parentheses, after each athlete’s name). Also, this first list is 20-deep, with subsequent lists to extend to the normal 25 and include an extensive honorable mention. Next week’s list will include a story on some of the top storylines to date.

(through meets of Sept. 22)

1. Sarah Baxter (1)
Simi Valley (Calif.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 1st D2 state (1st overall), 1st NXN Finals
Analysis: Baxter’s 2011 XC campaign started late, but by the end, she was unbeaten after topping the best NXN girls’ field ever. That she should begin this fall with the same US#1 status was backed up by a track season where she was the nation’s best 8-lapper with her 10:08.11 3,200 win at Arcadia. She’s already passed her first big test of her fall title defense, beating 2011 NXN 7th-place finisher Hagen Reedy with a CR to take the Woodbridge Invite.
2012 races to date:
9/15-1st Woodbridge 16:12 3M
9/8-1st Fastback Shootout 11:00.2 1.9M

2. Amy-Eloise Neale (6)
Glacier Peak (Snohomish, Wash.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st NXN NW, 5th NXN Finals
Analysis: Two-time NXN top-5 finisher Neale was slotted at #6 to begin the fall, but a very fast start has elevated her to #2. She’s been ranked #1 before (last fall) and, at her best, can beat just about anyone. Given that her junior year NXN finish and subsequent spring track times were slightly off what she did as a soph, she’s no doubt very motivated now. With Katie Knight and others in Washington, though, even winning in-state is very tough.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Bellvue Invite 17:04.5 5k
9/15-1st Sundodger Invite 16:31.12 4.92K
9/8-1st Sehome Invite 10:54.93 2M

3. Mary Cain (3)
Bronxville (N.Y.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 3rd NXN NY, 6th NXN Finals
Analysis: Can Cain become as good over hill and dale as she is on the oval? If so, watch out, as she did nothing less than crush Jordan Hasay’s 1,500 meter USR this past July at the World Juniors in Barcelona (4:11.01). She was also US#2 in both the 3,000 (9:32.20, ranked behind Baxter’s Arcadia split) and 800. Her soph campaign in XC was great, dominating most competition until the NXN meets, but not yet at her track level.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Warwick Wave 17:59.8 5k
9/15-1st Villa Bears Inv 14:42.2 4k

4. Hagen Reedy (10)
Buchanan (Clovis, Calif.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st D1 state (4th overall), 7th NXN Finals
Analysis: Reedy is not yet the household name among prep distance fans that, say, Cain and Baxter are. But that could change soon. She surprised a lot of folks with her race in Portland last fall, then had a solid track season featuring a 10:21.68 3,200 best. That didn’t really elevate her status, but finishing just five seconds behind Baxter at Woodbridge made it clear that she’s a first-team All-American quality harrier.
2012 races to date:
9/15-2nd Woodbridge Invite 16:17 3M
9/8-1st KHS Invite 10:36.79 2M

5. Julia Bos (HM)
Grand Rapids Christian (Mich.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd FL Midwest, 10th FL Finals
Analysis: Bos was pretty much unknown outside of Michigan until her unlooked-for runner-up finish in Kenosha last November. She followed up with a very solid run in San Diego, but then her track season was relatively quiet (10:36.18 3,200 best), in terms of national impact. But this fall, she’s immediately leapt to prominence again with an upset win over Erin Finn at the huge Spartan Invite and some other very fast wins.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Cougar Falcon Invite 17:21.9 5k
9/19-1st OK White Jamboree #2 18:20.38 5k
9/14-1st MSU Spartan Invite 17:20 5k
9/8-1st Christian Schools Inv 17:59.92 5k
9/5-1st OK White Jamboree #1 18:00.92 5k
8/25-1st Benzie/Pete Moss Inv 17:26.7 5k

6. Ashley Erba (4)
Warsaw Comm. (Ind.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st state, 28th FL Midwest
Analysis: Almost no one outside of the Hoosier State knew who Erba was until her stunning NBNO 5,000 victory in June with a US#2 16:18.21. She had previously lowered her 3,200 PR to 10:24.94 after an XC campaign that saw her win state, but finish well out of qualifying in Kenosha. A strong start this fall saw her win three races, lose to another fast-rising Indiana performer (Anna Rohrer), then avenge the loss with a blazing victory at the Culver Invite.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Culver Acad. Inv. 17:13.7 5k
9/15-2nd New Prairie Inv. 17:25.1 5k
9/8-1st Northrup Bruin Inv 17:43.2 5k
8/25-1st Dekalb Classic 18:12.32 5k
8/18-1st Huntington North Inv 17:30.4 5k

7. Katie Knight (5)
North Central (Spokane, Wash.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd NXN NW, 3rd NXN Finals
Analysis: Knight trails some runners she has beaten before in these early rankings, despite five early wins this fall – including the prestigious Firman Invite last weekend. After an electric 2011, that saw huge track PRs in the spring followed by a fall that concluded with her 3rd in Portland, she was plagued somewhat by injuries in spring 2012. She hasn’t raced any of Washington’s top stars yet, but could jump back toward the top when she gets the opportunity.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Firman Invite 17:59.46 5k
9/19-1st GSL #2 tri-meet 19:22.43 5k
9/12-1st GSL #1 tri-meet 18:18 5k
9/8-1st Tracy Walters Inv 17:47 3M

8. Erin Finn (2)
West Bloomfield (Mich.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 3rd FL Midwest, 2nd FL Finals
Analysis: Finn was on top of the prep long-distance world when after her fine runner-up finish in San Diego, she rocked The Armory at NBNI with a jaw-dropping 16:19.69 5,000 USR. Then a strong outdoor season (10:17.86, 4:47.08 mile) had a dud of a finish in the USATF Junior 5k (4th, 16:58.77) and her first big fall race saw Bos keep her from defending her Spartan title. US#2 in the preseason, Finn still has lots of time to rally and become the national champ she has the potential to be.
2012 races to date:
9/14-2nd MSU Spartan Inv 17:35 5k
9/11-1st OAA White Jamboree 18:09.4 5k
9/8-1st West Bloom/Broth. Rice Inv 18:11.71 5k
8/28-1st Mustang Invite 17:39.0 5k

9. Jillian Fanning (7)
Fayetteville-Manlius (Manlius, N.Y.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st NXN NY, 4th NXN Finals
Analysis: Fanning became the dominant runner on the championship F-M squad last fall, going unbeaten through NXN NY, including a stellar Eastern States win. She was US#1 going into Portland, where she was a solid fourth. A low-key track season followed as she ran only the 4×800 at outdoor state and F-M stayed home from nationals. Now her coach has said she likely won’t make her big race debut this fall until her Eastern States title defense.
2012 races to date: None

10. Jordyn Colter (HM)
Cherry Creek (Greenwood Village, Colo.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 1st Liberty Bell, 2nd Nike Pre Nats, 1st 5A state
Analysis: Colter had a big breakout campaign as a frosh last fall, going unbeaten after Sept. 3 in-state en route to a 5A title. She skipped the post-season, then ran 2:13.43/5:02.48/11:01.95 during a relatively low-key spring. She’s roared back into the national headlines this fall, however, with early efforts including an eye-popping course record 17-flat at Liberty Bell. If she shoots for San Diego or Portland, she’s a top-five contender.
2012 races to date:
9/14-1st Liberty Bell 17:00.60 5k
9/7-1st Cherry Creek Inv 17:31 5k
8/31-1st Cheyenne Mtn Stampede 19:17.6 5k

11. Sophie Chase (9)
Lake Braddock (Burke, Va.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd FL South, 11th FL Finals
Analysis: Chase developed into Virginia’s best harrier last fall, and dramatically improved her FL South (8th to 2nd) and Finals (38th to 11th) performances from 2010. She kept progressing during indoor and outdoor track, highlighted by a US#5 9:37.86 Penn Relays 3k win and a US#4 10:19.14 2M at NBNO for fourth. Light start so far this fall for a very consistent runner who could definitely be a top-five performer.
2012 races to date:
9/18-1st Lake Braddock Relays 8:14 1.5M leg

12. Alli Cash (16)
Shawnee Mission West (Kan.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 5th NXN HL, 40th NXN Finals
Analysis: It was clear before and during her solid performance last fall that Cash had a lot of talent at both middle- and long-distances. But then this past spring she exploded on the national scene when she lowered her 1,600 PR in May to 4:45.63, then ripped a stunning 4:39.98 for a very close third in the adidas Dream Mile. Now her 4k XC times have dropped this fall already, with a 13:16 best and a 13:59 win over a strong field at Rim Rock.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Rim Rock Farms 13:59.22 4k
9/15-1st Baldwin Invite 13:16 4k
9/3-1st Greg Wilson Inv 13:46.7 4k

13. Clare Flanagan (HM)
The Blake School (Minneapolis, Minn.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 3rd Griak Inv, 1st 1A State
Analysis: Flanagan was a fine small school runner in Minnesota last fall, but didn’t contest the post-season. In track, though, she worked her way through the high- to mid-10s in the 3,200, then opened some eyes at NBNO with a US#5 10:20.75 2-mile PR in fifth. Early this fall at the Gerry Smith Invite, she got a chance to race big-school star Maria Hauger, an NXN and Foot Locker finals qualifier last fall, and won by 18 seconds over 4k.
2012 races to date:
9/19-1st Grasshopper Inv 14:39.87 4k
9/13-1st Private School Inv 14:23.5 4k
9/6-1st Gerry Smith Inv 13:55.2 4k
8/30-1st Tri-Metro Conf. 14:27.67 4k
8/25-1st DeBoom Invite 7:32 2.4K

14. Kaylee Flanagan (HM)
Lake Park (Roselle, Ill.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 4th NXN MW, 10th FL MW, 18th NXN Finals, 31st FL Finals
Analysis: Flanagan followed her sister last fall as a double nationals finalist, with her best performance in Portland, and is already showing this fall that she could better those standards. She no doubt would like a 3A state crown after taking third last fall, as well. She claimed state 3,200 titles both indoors and out in track and so far this fall has burned up Illinois courses, highlighted by a 16:20.3 CR at Detweiller, taking down Kayla Beattie’s mark.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Palatine Invite 16:49 3M
9/15-1st Richard Spring Invite 16:20.3 3M
9/8-1st Lake Park Lancer Inv 16:27.7 3M
9/1-1st Fenton Earlybird Inv 16:56 3M

15. Anna Rohrer (NR)
Mishawaka (Ind.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: DNQ for state, 19:14.1 best
Analysis: Rohrer was not a factor even on the state level last fall and was just starting to emerge in track (11:11 3,200 best). But dramatic improvement over the summer led to her starting out 2012 XC with a pair of sub-18s. Then at New Prairie, she upset NBNO 5,000 champ and US#4 Ashley Erba with a 17:14 to suddenly gain national attention. Erba avenged the loss at Culver, but Rohrer’s 17:32 runner-up finish there still confirmed she’s a national-class talent.
2012 races to date:
9/22-2nd Culver Acad. Inv. 17:32.1 5k
9/15-1st New Prairie Inv 17:14.1 5k
9/8-1st Northridge Inv 17:56.9 5k
8/18-1st Viking Stampede 17:46 5k

16. Taylor Werner (NR)
Ste. Genevieve (Mo.), Class of 2016
2011 XC: None (freshman)
Analysis: One of this year’s national breakout freshman looks to be Werner, who captured XC fans’ attention with her 16:59 5k victory at the Forest Park Invite over fellow Missouri elite Hannah Long. She hasn’t really been tested in two wins since, but looks to be legit. As an eighth-grader last spring, she ran a 5:00.52 mile that suggested she’d be ready to compete at a high level this fall.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Hancock Invite 18:00.2 5k
9/15-1st Paul Enke Invite 18:28.7 5k
9/8-1st Forest Park Festival 16:59.3 5k
9/4-1st Jim Marshall Invite 12:29 2.2M

17. Alana Hadley (HM)
Ardrey Kell (Charlotte, N.C.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 10th FL South, 34th FL Finals
Analysis: Hadley goes to Ardrey Kell, but runs independently. She’s been nationally known a few years, due to outstanding youth road performances, ranging from 16:51 5k to 1:16:41 ½ marathon. She competes in college/open races in XC, but also ran Foot Locker last fall and had a solid frosh debut. Her latest effort – a 17:16 for third at the adidas Challenge at WakeMed (NXN South and Great American site) – suggests she’s still improving.
2012 races to date:
9/14-3rd adidas Challenge (college/open) 17:16 5k

18. Maria Hauger (HM)
Shakopee (Minn.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st NXN HL, 5th FL MW, 24th NXN Finals, 21st FL Finals
Analysis: Like Kaylee Flanagan (above), Hauger ran both nationals last year, starting with her NXN regional win in Sioux Falls, and had very solid efforts. She was fast and consistent in the spring, as well, highlighted by a 16:53.07 5k/10:28.40 2M double (placing 4th and 8th) at NBNO. A strong start this fall includes three victories and a runner-up finish to small school Minn. star Clare Flanagan.
2012 races to date:
9/22-1st Apple Valley Eagle Inv 13:58.4 4k
9/14-1st Lakeville Applejack Inv 13:37.6 4k
9/6-2nd Gerry Smith Invite 14:13.3 4k
8/31-1st St. Olaf Showcase 14:02.8 4k

19. Laura Leff (11)
West Genesee (Camillus, N.Y.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 5th FL NE, 3rd FL Finals
Analysis: One of the most stunning championship performances last fall was the 3rd-place finish by Leff in San Diego – though there was no questioning her talent. Her previous races, however, had been a tad up and down relative to other top girls in the state. She then had an outstanding start indoors, winning the New Balance mile in 4:48.96, but injury problems ended the campaign and outdoor track as well. How she will do in XC is one of the biggest questions this fall.
2012 races to date: None

20. Grace Tinkey (13)
First Presbyterian Day (Macon, Ga.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 3rd FL South, 6th FL Finals
Analysis: Like the above-mentioned Leff, Tinkey is a huge question mark this fall. She’s a three-time FL Finalist, taking 20th, 15th and 6th the past three Decembers. But she suffered a huge setback when she broke her fibula at the USATF Junior XC race last February. It has been reported that she hopes to start her campaign later in the fall and shoot to earn her fourth trip to San Diego.
2012 races to date: None