Editor’s note: SteveU’s individual rankings (originally Foot Locker Favorites) began appearing on DyeStat.com eight years ago and are continuing with DyeTrack.com. The rankings have always been based on distance-running accomplishments to date, with an emphasis on XC and 3200/2M track results, rather than a projection of how the Foot Locker Finals or NXN Finals will turn out (predictions run later in the season). As the season progresses, weight is shifted from overall career credentials to most recent accomplishments. With the transition between the closing of DyeStat.com on ESPN to the launch of DyeTrack.com, no preseason top 25 was published. The initial 2012 ranking, however, included unpublished preseason assessments (in parentheses, after each athlete’s name). Also, the first list was 20-deep, but lists since then have extended to the normal 25.

(this week’s “storylines” are incorporated into individual analysis)

The Rankings, through 10/20 races (previous ranking in parentheses):

1. Sarah Baxter (1)
Simi Valley (Calif.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 1st D2 state (1st overall), 1st NXN Finals
Analysis: As all who follow the national prep distance running world now know, Baxter delivered one of the greatest performances ever last Saturday at Mt. SAC. Some are calling it the best ever. That’s hard to quantify in XC, but beating former Foot Locker champ Amber Trotter’s 2001 mark by 16 seconds (and winning by more than a minute) is no mean feat. Baxter seems primed to rule the nation all the way through Portland, presuming she will try to defend her NXN title.
2012 races to date:
10/20-1st Mt. SAC D1/D2 Team Sweeps 16:00 2.93M
10/11-1st Marmonte Lg 16:44 3M
9/20-1st Marmonte Lg Tri 17:46.63 3M
9/15-1st Woodbridge 16:12 3M
9/8-1st Fastback Shootout 11:00.2 1.9M

2. Amy-Eloise Neale (2)
Glacier Peak (Snohomish, Wash.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st NXN NW, 5th NXN Finals
Analysis: Neale blasted another great time in winning her conference Oct. 18 and it’s scary to think she’s been better than ever all fall (given how good she’s been since 9th grade). Still, she hasn’t met prime rival Katie Knight yet (since they both didn’t do Sunfair this year) and fans can barely wait for that (3A state Nov. 3). Meanwhile, she’ll figure to stay unbeaten with regionals this weekend.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/18-1st WESCO Conf. Champs 17:01 5k
10/6-1st Hole in the Wall Inv 17:10.4 5k
9/29-1st Stanford Inv Seeded 16:52 5k
9/22-1st Bellvue Invite 17:04.5 5k
9/15-1st Sundodger Invite 16:31.12 4.92K
9/8-1st Sehome Invite 10:54.93 2M

3. Hagen Reedy (3)
Buchanan (Clovis, Calif.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st D1 state (4th overall), 7th NXN Finals
Analysis: Reedy surely noted Baxter’s 16:00 at Mt. SAC and can only wonder how close she could have been herself to that immortal time, given that she was just five seconds behind the national champ at Woodbridge. Reedy knows she can blast at least 16:59 on the state course, which is pretty darn formidable itself. The long push toward state is about to begin in the Golden State.
2012 races to date:
10/12-1st McD’s Rough Rider Inv 17:01 5k
10/6-1st Clovis Invite 16:59 5k
9/15-2nd Woodbridge Invite 16:17 3M
9/8-1st KHS Invite 10:36.79 2M

4. Mary Cain (4)
Bronxville (N.Y.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 3rd NXN NY, 6th NXN Finals
Analysis: With the announcement she is being coached by Alberto Salazar and foregoing the rest of her New York high school season, Cain’s schedule changes and is reportedly scheduled to race next at the Dash to the Finish Line 5k in Manhattan Nov. 3, the day before the New York Marathon. She is still eligible for Foot Locker and NXN competition.
2012 races to date:
10/13-1st Manhattan “Varsity A” 14:03.9 2.5M
10/6-1st St. Anthony’s Inv 18:45.3 5k
9/22-1st Warwick Wave 17:59.8 5k
9/15-1st Villa Bears Inv 14:42.2 4k

5. Ashley Erba (6)
Warsaw Comm. (Ind.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st state, 28th FL Midwest
Analysis: With another fantastic mark of 17:06.9, at her New Prairie Semi-State meet, it appeared Erba had a new state record – only to find Anna Rohrer had run a few ticks faster in another semi-state meet. Still, Erba now has gone under 17:20 for 5k four times. Her battle against Rohrer this Saturday at the Indiana state meet should be one of the best individual state meet battles of the year nationally.
2012 races to date:
10/20-1st New Prairie Semi-State 17:06.9 5k
10/13-1st Culver Regional Champs 17:12.5 5k
10/6-1st Culver Sectional 17:29.7 5k
9/29-1st Northern Lakes Conf. 17:17.14 5k
9/22-1st Culver Acad. Inv. 17:13.7 5k
9/15-2nd New Prairie Inv. 17:25.1 5k
9/8-1st Northrup Bruin Inv 17:43.2 5k
8/25-1st Dekalb Classic 18:12.32 5k
8/18-1st Huntington North Inv 17:30.4 5k

6. Julia Bos (5)
Grand Rapids Christian (Mich.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd FL Midwest, 10th FL Finals
Analysis: Bos continued unbeaten through her conference meet and that shouldn’t change during her regional meet this coming Saturday. When she tries to defend her D2 state title Nov. 3, all eyes will be watching to see how her time compares to Erin Finn and other girls in D1.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/17-1st OK White Conf. Champs 17:31.96 5k
10/13-1st Kent Ottawa Champs 17:57.1 5k
10/6-1st Portage Invite 17:19.1 5k
9/29-1st Carson City Invite 17:37.3 5k
9/22-1st Cougar Falcon Invite 17:21.9 5k
9/14-1st MSU Spartan Invite 17:20 5k
9/8-1st Christian Schools Inv 17:59.92 5k
8/25-1st Benzie/Pete Moss Inv 17:26.7 5k

7. Katie Knight (7)
North Central (Spokane, Wash.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd NXN NW, 3rd NXN Finals
Analysis: Another good performance at her last league meet kept Knight unbeaten heading into this weekend’s regional meet. Fans can’t wait until she finally meets rival Amy-Eloise Neale at 3A state on Nov. 3.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/17-1st GSL #5 vs. Mt. Spokane 17:19 3M
10/10-1st GSL #4 tri meet 18:10 3M
10/6-1st Richland Invite 17:16.53 3M
9/22-1st Firman Invite 17:59.46 5k
9/19-1st GSL #2 tri-meet 19:22.43 5k
9/12-1st GSL #1 tri-meet 18:18 5k
9/8-1st Tracy Walters Inv 17:47 3M

8. Alexa Efraimson (8)
Camas (Camas, Wash.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 3rd NXN NW, 14th NXN Finals
Analysis: Last year, Efraimson was third at 3A state behind Neale and Knight; this year, her school is Class 4A, so she’ll go for a title there – trying to unseat Jordan McPhee – while her rivals battle again in 3A. This Saturday will be her final tuneup before that Nov. 3 finale.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/18-1st Gr. St. Helen’s Dist. 18:09 5k
10/9-1st tri-meet 18:03 5k
10/6-2nd Richland Invite 17:22.87 3M
9/29-2nd Stanford Inv Seeded 17:04 5k
9/14-1st Pier Park Invite 18:01.5 5k
9/7-1st Hudson Bay Inv 18:00 5k

9. Jordyn Colter (10)
Cherry Creek (Greenwood Village, Colo.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 1st Liberty Bell, 2nd Nike Pre Nats, 1st 5A state
Analysis: With a smoking fast victory in her region meet, Colter refocused attention on Colorado’s fastest girl. She’ll try and defend her 5A state title this weekend on a much tougher course, where anything under 18 would be very, very good.
2012 races to date:
10/18-1st 5A Region 2 Champs 17:00 5k
10/11-1st Centennial Lg 17:43 5k
9/29-3rd Stanford Inv Seeded 17:05 5k
9/14-1st Liberty Bell 17:00.60 5k
9/7-1st Cherry Creek Inv 17:31 5k
8/31-1st Cheyenne Mtn Stampede 19:17.6 5k

10. Anna Rohrer (16)
Mishawaka (Ind.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: DNQ for state, 19:14.1 best
Analysis: Rohrer just keeps getting better and better, and her scintillating regional time, the fastest ever in Indiana, just increased the pre-meet drama for state to “11” on the Spinal Tap scale. Rohrer beat Erba at New Prairie; Erba won their showdown at Culver a week later. Whatever happens Saturday at state, the soph is arguably the nation’s most improved runner this year.
2012 races to date:
10/20-1st New Haven Semi-State 17:03.96 5k
10/13-1st Elkhart Cent. Regional 17:24 5k
10/6-1st South Bend Sectional 17:33.2 5k
9/29-1st Northern Indiana Conf. 17:38 5k
9/22-2nd Culver Acad. Inv. 17:32.1 5k
9/15-1st New Prairie Inv 17:14.1 5k
9/8-1st Northridge Inv 17:56.9 5k
8/18-1st Viking Stampede 17:46 5k

11. Maria Hauger (9)
Shakopee (Minn.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 1st NXN HL, 5th FL MW, 24th NXN Finals, 21st FL Finals
Analysis: Hauger is unbeaten save for a loss to Clare Flanagan back in early September and is slated to run her region meet this weekend, followed by a state AA title defense.
2012 races to date:
10/16-1st Missota Conf. Champs 13:35 4k
10/9-1st Shakopee Invite 13:44.1 4k
9/29-1st Roy Griak Invite 17:50 5k
9/22-1st Apple Valley Eagle Inv 13:58.4 4k
9/14-1st Lakeville Applejack Inv 13:37.6 4k
9/6-2nd Gerry Smith Invite 14:13.3 4k
8/31-1st St. Olaf Showcase 14:02.8 4k

12. Alana Hadley (11)
Ardrey Kell (Charlotte, N.C.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 10th FL South, 34th FL Finals
Analysis: Hadley had no race last weekend, but was joined in the ranks of national class runners racing outside of school competition by one Mary Cain.
2012 races to date:
10/12-1st Royals Challenge 17:16.7 5k
9/28-12th UNC Charlotte Invite 21:52 6k
9/14-3rd adidas Challenge (college/open) 17:16 5k

13. Sophie Chase (12)
Lake Braddock (Burke, Va.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd FL South, 11th FL Finals
Analysis: No meet again for Chase last weekend after her pair of major meet victories, but she was slated to race Thursday in her district meet as the road to state begins in Virginia (victory there to be listed in next ranking).
2012 races to date:
10/6-1st Nike South Inv 17:40.40 5k
9/29-1st Maymont Festival 17:54.38 5k
9/18-1st Lake Braddock Relays 8:14 1.5M leg

14. Alli Cash (15)
Shawnee Mission West (Kan.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 5th NXN HL, 40th NXN Finals
Analysis: Cash rolled through her league and regional meets over a five-day period last week, keeping her unbeaten outside of her Griak loss to Hauger. She will defend her 6A state title this weekend.
2012 races to date:
10/20-1st SMS 6A Region 14:03.97 4k
10/15-1st Sunflower Lg meet 14:16.2 4k
9/29-2nd Roy Griak Invite 17:55.4 5k
9/22-1st Rim Rock Farms 13:59.22 4k
9/15-1st Baldwin Invite 13:16 4k
9/3-1st Greg Wilson Inv 13:46.7 4k

15. Erin Finn (14)
West Bloomfield (Mich.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 3rd FL Midwest, 2nd FL Finals
Analysis: In her first race since beginning treatment for iron deficiency, Finn got back under 18:00 with a conference jamboree victory, her last race before regionals and then the Nov. 3 defense of her D1 state title.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/19-1st OAA White Jamboree #3 17:47.1 5k
10/6-1st Oakland County Champs 18:18 5k
9/28-1st Waterford Mott Classic 18:10.7 5k
9/14-2nd MSU Spartan Inv 17:35 5k
9/11-1st OAA White Jamboree 18:09.4 5k
9/8-1st West Bloom/Broth. Rice Inv 18:11.71 5k
8/28-1st Mustang Invite 17:39.0 5k

16. Taylor Werner (17)
Ste. Genevieve (Mo.), Class of 2016
2011 XC: None (freshman)
Analysis: Werner has had almost no competition since her Sept. 8 Forest Park victory over Hannah Long, but continued to run fast and there’s been no justification for a significant move in the rankings. She might get pushed in her regional meet this weekend or at 3A state next week, though Long is in 4A.
2012 races to date:
10/13-1st Borgia Invite 17:55.3 5k
10/6-1st Potosi Invite 17:30 5k
9/22-1st Hancock Invite 18:00.2 5k
9/15-1st Paul Enke Invite 18:28.7 5k
9/8-1st Forest Park Festival 16:59.3 5k
9/4-1st Jim Marshall Invite 12:29 2.2M

17. Maggie Drazba (18)
St. Mary’s (W.V.), Class of 2013
2011-12 XC: 1st State, 13th FL South, 2nd USATF Jrs
Analysis: Most of the courses Drazba races are brutally tough, so don’t let the 19-plus clockings lead you to believe that the Great American champ has fallen off. Still unbeaten, she’ll expect to stay that way in her state meet title defense Saturday.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/19-1st Class AA-A, Reg. 1 Champs 19:34.33 5k
10/11-1st Little Kanawha Conf. 19:16.37 5k
10/6-1st Times Invite 19:05.69 5k
9/29-1st Great American ROC 17:27.9 5k
9/22-1st Bearcat Invite 19:47 5k
9/8-1st Chick Fil A Invite 18:01 5k
9/1-1st GEICO Classic 18:30.22 5k

18. Hannah Long (21)
Eureka (Mo.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 2nd Class 4 state, 11th FL Midwest
Analysis: Long continued her stellar season with a district title last weekend and moves on to regionals this weekend.
2012 races to date:
10/20-1st Cl. 4, Dist. 2 Champs 18:01 5k
10/8-1st Suburb. West Conf. 18:08.57 5k
9/29-2nd Great American ROC 17:30.0 5k
9/13-1st Parkway Central Inv 18:34 5k
9/8-2nd Forest Pk Festival 17:07 5k
8/31-1st Fleet Feet Kickoff 11:34 2M

19. Anna Maxwell (HM)
San Lorenzo Valley (Felton, Calif.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 10th FL West, 24th FL Finals
Analysis: From the alma mater of legendary Class of 2001 star Alejandra Barrientos has come a talent that could set new standards and leave her own national impact. Maxwell impressed as a frosh in 2010 with 8th at FL West and 28th in the Finals, then improved four spots in San Diego last year. In 2012 track, she lowered her bests to 4:48.11 1,600 and 10:21.04 3,200. This fall’s first highlight was a big win at Nike Pre-Nats in Portland, then she blasted under 17 at Mt. SAC in a dominating D4 Sweeps win last week.
2012 (major) races to date:
10/19-1st Mt. SAC D4 Sweeps 16:57 3M
10/11-1st Tri-meet 16:27 2.5M
9/29-1st Nike Pre-Nationals 17:37.4 5k
9/15-1st Stevenson Invite 8:42.9 1.6M
9/8-1st Earlybird Invite 17:28 3M

20. Karis Jochen (20)
A&M Consolidated (College Station, Texas), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 2nd NXN South, 9th FL South, 31st NXN Finals, 12th FL Finals
Analysis: Jochen’s season has been pretty light on major meets, but she was slated to begin her drive for a Texas 5A title late this week (district victory will be noted next week).
2012 races to date
10/6-1st McNeil Invite 17:29.6 5k
9/22-1st Cedar Park Invite 17:28.11 5k

21. Makena Morley (19)
Big Fork (Mont.), Class of 2015
2011 XC: 3rd FL West, 9th FL Finals
Analysis: Morley repeated as Class B state champion last weekend, though admitted she didn’t feel it was one of her best efforts. She had the second best time of all classes in the meet. She ran more than a minute slower than she had run an earlier meet on the course, albeit on a much windier day, yet she still won by 20 seconds.
2012 races to date:
10/20: 1st Class B State 18:13.1 3M
10/13-1st Western B Divisional 16:56 3M
10/4-1st Capital City 7 of 7 Inv 16:50 3M
9/29-1st Mountain West Inv 17:07 3M
9/22-1st Polson Invite 17:31 3M
9/15-1st Ronan Invite 17:14 3M
9/10-1st Flathead Invite 17:47.87 3M

22. Julia Maxwell (HM)
Branson (Ross, Calif.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 1st D5 State, 18th FL West
Analysis: It’s tempting to think otherwise, but Maxwell is no relation to her namesake, Anna, at San Lorenzo Valley. The similarity lies only in the last name – and the talent. After running a 5:00 1,600 as a frosh, this Maxwell really began moving up the ranks last fall on her way to a D5 state title. Last spring, she got her 1,600 down to 4:57.33 and her 3,200 way down to 10:27.99 (4th state). This fall has been marked by a 4th at Stanford behind fellow ranked stars Neale, Efraimson and Colter, then an eye-popping 16:52 to win the Mt. SAC D5 race last Friday.
2012 races to date:
10/19-1st Mt SAC D5 Sweeps 16:52 2.93M
10/11-1st Tam tri meet 17:12 3M
9/29-4th Stanford Inv Seeded 17:25 5k
9/13-1st Stinson Beach Relays 9:45 1.8M
9/8-1st Ed Sias Invite 11:28.2 2M

23. Caroline Alcorta (23)
West Springfield (Va.), Class of 2014
2011 XC: 8th 3A State, 23rd FL South
Analysis: Alcorta had no meets last weekend while preparing for a Patriot District battle against Lake Braddock’s star 1-2 duo of Chase and Hannah Christen (runner-up finish to be listed next week). Regional and state meets will follow.
2012 races to date:
10/13-1st Glory Days Grill 17:42 5k
10/6-1st Hagen Stone Classic 17:57.57 5k
9/29-2nd Maymont Festival 18:11.79 5k
9/15-1st Wm & Mary Invite 18:20 5k
9/8-2nd Monroe Parker Invite 17:46 3M

24. Megan Reilly (24)
Warwick Valley (N.Y.), Class of 2016
Analysis: Reilly had no races last week, but was slated to run her OCIAA conference meet Thursday (victory to be listed next week).
2012 races to date:
10/13-2nd Manhattan “Varsity A” 14:17.4 4k
9/29-5th Roy Griak Invite 18:38.7 5k
9/22-1st Warwick Wave Mania (D2) 18:15.0 5k

25. Reagan Anderson (25)
Tatnall (Wilmington, Del.), Class of 2013
2011 XC: 3rd NXN SE, 23rd NXN Finals
Analysis: Anderson followed her Eastern States win with a decisive triumph at the key O’Neill meet. Her county and state meets will follow Nov. 3 and Nov. 10.
2012 races to date:
10/19-1st Joe O’Neill Invite 17:49.43 5k
10/13-1st Manhattan Eastern States 14:21.2 4k
9/29-8th Great American ROC 17:58.5 5k
9/22-1st Bull Run Invite 18:58 3M
9/15-6th Cherokee Challenge 11:27 3,200m