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Preseason Top 100 Boys XC Teams 2014 - DyeStat

Published by
DyeStat   on Sep 1 2014, 04:54 PM

La Salle RI is US#1 heading into 2014 season

 

by Rob Monroe

 

Boys US Rankings -

1. La Salle Academy RI
2. Christian Brothers Academy NJ
3. American Fork UT
4. Central Catholic OR
5. Fayetteville-Manlius NY
6. Liverpool NY
7. North Central WA
8. Southlake Carroll TX
9. Davis UT
10. Wayzata MN
11. Kamiakin WA
12. Ridgefield CT
13. Great Oak CA
14. Don Bosco NJ
15. Madera South CA
16. Edina MN
17. Warren CA
18. Timpanogos UT
19. Broughton NC
20. Malvern Prep PA
21. Jenks OK
22. Lake Braddock VA
23. College Park TX
24. Gig Harbor WA
25. Wisconsin Lutheran WI
26. Stillwater MN
27. Neuqua Valley IL
28. Summit OR
29. Saugus CA
30. St. Louis University MO
31. Lafayette (Wildwood) MO
32. South Brunswick NJ
33. Central Valley WA
34. North Allegheny PA
35. Rubidoux CA
36. Jurupa Hills CA
37. New Trier IL
38. West Lafayette IN
39. St. Xavier OH
40. Rogers AR
41. Bellarmine Prep CA
42. Brea Olinda CA
43. St. Anthony's NY
44. Albuquerque Academy NM
45. Hilliard Davidson OH
46. Cherry Hill East NJ
47. Auburn AL
48. Vallivue ID
49. Ogden UT
50. Ventura CA
51. Bishop Hendricken RI
52. West Plains MO
53. Bloomington North IN
54. Eastlake WA
55. Waterford Mott MI
56. The Woodlands TX
57. Davis Sr. CA
58. Dana Hills CA
59. Westview CA
60. Northville MI
61. Lincoln SD
62. Hinsdale Central IL
63. St Xavier KY
64. Canyon (Anaheim) CA
65. Clovis North CA
66. Orland Park (Sandburg) IL
67. York IL
68. Yorkville IL
69. Leon FL
70. Cardinal O'Hara PA
71. W.W.P. South NJ
72. Dublin Coffman OH
73. Festus MO
74. Conestoga PA
75. Cardinal Gibbons NC
76. Tatnall DE
77. Long Beach Poly CA
78. Bentonville AR
79. Bellarmine Prep WA
80. West Springfield VA
81. Dulaney MD
82. Cooper KY
83. Mountain View UT
84. Pleasant Valley IA
85. Bismarck ND
86. De La Salle CA
87. Marietta GA
88. Lawton Chiles FL
89. Midlothian VA
90. Daniel Boone TN
91. Hopkins MN
92. Summit NJ
93. Fort Collins CO
94. Hersey IL
95. University WV
96. Los Gatos CA
97. Naperville North IL
98. Traverse City Central MI
99. Carmel IN
100. Cheyenne Mountain CO

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15 comment(s)  
watchout

Doug Soles, on , said:

Rob,

Just out of curiosity, is our ranking with or without Spencer Dodds who transferred to our school this summer? He has run a 15:19 5k so far this summer and 4:21 for 1600 last year as a 10th grader. No worries either way, just will help me see how we stack up.

Thank you,

Doug


Without. Quick look suggests that he makes you guys competitive with Kamiakin for US#11.
Doug Soles
Rob,

Just out of curiosity, is our ranking with or without Spencer Dodds who transferred to our school this summer? He has run a 15:19 5k so far this summer and 4:21 for 1600 last year as a 10th grader. No worries either way, just will help me see how we stack up.

Thank you,

Doug
DougB
I like the idea of additional BorderClash type events .... and one that I think could have some merit would be a New York vs. Ontario "clash" built around the Niagara Falls/Lake Ontario border. That might be fun.
watchout
Just what we need - Canadians in even more US Championships. :P
(no offense to our friends up north, but I think Canada already has a national championship, and I'd like us to have one as well)
(also, aside from Southern BC, that'd be one massive trek for Canadian teams to the NW regional)
bsarno
Why not make it more complicated...bring Canada in...under U.s. Rules and have Ontario and east run with NewYork and the rest go with the northwest and Alaska. See Canadians at indoor and outdoor nationals at time but sence XC would also make some sense too...they buy shoes up there too. Snowshoes...
bsarno
Why not make it more complicated...bring Canada in...under U.s. Rules and have Ontario and east run with NewYork and the rest go with the northwest and Alaska. See Canadians at indoor and outdoor nationals at time but sence XC would also make some sense too...they buy shoes up there too. Snowshoes...
watchout
A trio of NY teams were also on the bubble.

As for the NXN regional alignments... I've shared my opinion on that before - NY should combine with New England, and NJ/PA/MD/DE/VA/WV should combine for a Mid-Atlantic region (would cut down on travel to regional meets, increasing participation, and prevents another state from having teams automatically make it to NXN without needing to beat other state champions ... California is unavoidable in that respect - and always deep enough on BOTH sides, but NY isn't always and the situation isn't unavoidable)

A note on how the preseason regional rankings would look on the national scale with those simple changes...

Would-be #4's:
NE#4 would be 12 instead of 14
MA#4 would be 22 instead of NY's 101+
SE#4 would be 69 instead of 63

Would-be #5's:
NE#5 would be 43 instead of 20
MA#5 would be 34 instead of NY's 102+
SE#5 would be 75 instead of 69

or, in other words, little difference to the NY + New England teams in terms of how the #4 team (possible but difficult to qualify for NXN from, if teams finish in that order at NXR) would stack up, much more reasonable for MA teams compared to NY, and little change for the SE. The bigger story is the #5 spot (best team that cannot qualify for NXN, if teams finish in that order at NXR), where the strongest region is US#34 instead of US#20 (meaning more potential Top-30 teams are eligible for At-Large consideration, rather than being disqualified because their region is just too elite at the top)
bsarno
Only three teams from NewYork. Has its own NXN region?

Two in top six, a 43 and then nothing...
Will be interesting to see how Northport rebuilds and what is happening at Arlington and in Rockland County.
watchout
Breakdown of # of teams by region and state (Southeast boys are third deepest region!)


Midwest: 21
Illinois = 8
Missouri = 4
Indiana = 3
Michigan = 3
Ohio = 3

California: 17
Southern Section = 10
Central Coast Section = 2
Central Section = 2
North Coast Section = 1
Sac-Joaquin Section = 1
San Diego Section = 1


Southeast: 15
Virginia = 3
Florida = 2
Kentucky = 2
North Carolina = 2
Alabama = 1
Delaware = 1
Georgia = 1
Maryland = 1
Tennessee = 1
West Virginia = 1

Northeast: 13
New Jersey = 6
Pennsylvania = 4
Rhode Island = 2
Connecticut = 1

Northwest: 9
Washington = 6
Oregon = 2
Idaho = 1

Heartland: 8
Minnesota = 4
Iowa = 1
North Dakota = 1
South Dakota = 1
Wisconsin = 1

Southwest: 8
Utah = 5
Colorado = 2
New Mexico = 1

South: 6
Texas = 3
Arkansas = 2
Okalhoma = 1

New York: 3
Section 3 = 2
CHSAA = 1




Deepest states should come as no surprise:

CIF Southern Section = 10
Illinois = 8
New Jersey = 6
Washington = 6
Utah = 5
watchout
Team rankings with notes on 2013 XC finishes:

EDIT: Now with the # of returners! Note that the returners position on the team is from the results of multiple meets (State, NXR, NXN), so it might not always match up with who were/weren't scorers at meet X


Rank. Team (2013 Final Top 40) - State / Season Ending Championship; NXR Finish (NXN Finish NXN)

1. La Salle Academy RI (NR) - New England Champion; Northeast eighth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
2. Christian Brothers Academy NJ (2) - New Jersey MOC Champion; Northeast Champion (#2 NXN); Returns 2/5, 4/7)
3. American Fork UT (7) - Utah 5A State Champion; Southwest Champion (#7 NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
4. Central Catholic OR (20) - Oregon 6A State Champion; Northwest third place (#19 NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
5. Fayetteville-Manlius NY (4) - New York A State Champion; New York Champion (#4 NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
6. Liverpool NY (21) - New York Federations Champion; New York third place (#20 NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
7. North Central WA (8) - Washington 3A State Champion; Northwest Runner-up (#8 NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
8. Southlake Carroll TX (14) - Texas 5A State Champion; South Champion (#14 NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
9. Davis UT (17) - Utah 5A State third place; Southwest Runner-up (#17 NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
10. Wayzata MN (15) - Minnesota 2A State Champion; Heartland Runner-up (#15 NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
11. Kamiakin WA (28) - Washington 3A State Runner-up; Northwest fifth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
12. Ridgefield CT (25) - New England Runner-up; Northeast third place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
13. Great Oak CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 1 seventh place; California D1 12th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
14. Don Bosco NJ (NR) - New Jersey MOC Runner-up; Northeast 14th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
15. Madera South CA (16) - Central Section D1 Champion; California D1 Runner-up (#16 NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
16. Edina MN (10) - Minnesota 2A State Runner-up; Heartland Champion (#10 NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
17. Warren CA (19) - CIF-SS Division 1 Champion; California D1 fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
18. Timpanogos UT (NR) - Utah 4A State Runner-up; Southwest 11th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
19. Broughton NC (24) - North Carolina 4A State Champion; Southeast third place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 4/7)
20. Malvern Prep PA (NR) - Pennsylvania Independent Schools Champion; Northeast fifth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
21. Jenks OK (NR) - Oklahoma 6A State Champion; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
22. Lake Braddock VA (NR) - Virginia 6A State Runner-up; Southeast sixth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
23. College Park TX (NR) - Texas 5A State Runner-up; South fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
24. Gig Harbor WA (1) - Washington 4A State Champion; Northwest Champion (#1 NXN); Returns 2/5, 4/7)
25. Wisconsin Lutheran WI (NR) - Wisconsin D2 State Champion; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 5/7)
26. Stillwater MN (NR) - Minnesota 2A State third place; Heartland third place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
27. Neuqua Valley IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State tenth place; Midwest 15th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
28. Summit OR (NR) - Oregon 5A State Champion; Northwest tenth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
29. Saugus CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 2 Champion; California D2 Champion (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
30. St. Louis University MO (NR) - Missouri Class 4 State Champion; Midwest 34th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
31. Lafayette (Wildwood) MO (NR) - Missouri Class 4 State third place; Midwest 23rd place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
32. South Brunswick NJ (NR) - NJ Group 4 fifth place; Northeast tenth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
33. Central Valley WA (NR) - Washington 4A State third place; Northwest 11th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
34. North Allegheny PA (NR) - Pennsylvania 3A State Runner-up; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 4/7)
35. Rubidoux CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 3 sixth place; California D3 sixth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
36. Jurupa Hills CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 3 Runner-up; California D3 Champion (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 4/7)
37. New Trier IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State sixth place; Midwest 11th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
38. West Lafayette IN (NR) - Indiana State ninth place; Midwest 25th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
39. St. Xavier OH (6) - Ohio D1 State Champion; Midwest Runner-up (#6 NXN); Returns 3/5, 3/7)
40. Rogers AR (NR) - Arkansas 7A State Champion; South tenth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
41. Bellarmine Prep CA (NR) - CIF-CCS Division 1 Champion; California D1 sixth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
42. Brea Olinda CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 3 Champion; California D3 Runner-up (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
43. St. Anthony's NY (23) - New York Federations third place; New York fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
44. Albuquerque Academy NM (NR) - New Mexico 4A State Runner-up; Southwest seventh place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
45. Hilliard Davidson OH (NR) - Ohio D1 State third place; Midwest seventh place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
46. Cherry Hill East NJ (NR) - New Jersey MOC ninth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
47. Auburn AL (NR) - Alabama 6A State Champion; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
48. Vallivue ID (NR) - Idaho 5A State fifth place; Northwest Open Runner-up (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
49. Ogden UT (NR) - Utah 4A State third place; Southwest fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
50. Ventura CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 1 Prelims H3 fifth place; Did not qualify for CA State (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
51. Bishop Hendricken RI (NR) - New England third place; Northeast ninth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
52. West Plains MO (NR) - Missouri Class 4 State fifth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
53. Bloomington North IN (NR) - Indiana State sixth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
54. Eastlake WA (NR) - Washington 4A State ninth place; Northwest Open Champion (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
55. Waterford Mott MI (NR) - Michigan D1 State Runner-up; Midwest 19th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
56. The Woodlands TX (NR) - Texas 5A State seventh place; South third place (DNQ NXN); Returns 1/5, 2/7)
57. Davis Sr. CA (NR) - CIF-SJS Division 2 Champion; California D1 ninth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
58. Dana Hills CA (18) - CIF-SS Division 1 third place; California D1 third place (#18 NXN); Returns 3/5, 3/7)
59. Westview CA (NR) - CIF-SDS Division 2 third place; California D2 ninth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
60. Northville MI (NR) - Michigan D1 State fifth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
61. Sioux Falls Lincoln SD (NR) - South Dakota 2A State Champion; Heartland 11th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
62. Hinsdale Central IL (27) - Illinois 3A State Champion; Midwest third place (#22 NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
63. St. Xavier KY (NR) - Kentucky 3A State Champion; Southeast seventh place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 2/7)
64. Canyon (Anaheim) CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 2 fourth place; California D2 fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 4/7)
65. Clovis North CA (NR) - CIF-CS Division 1 Runner-up; California D1 eighth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
66. Sandburg IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State seventh place; Midwest 13th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
67. York IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State fifth place; Midwest sixth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 3/7)
68. Yorkville IL (NR) - Illinois 2A State Champion; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
69. Leon FL (NR) - Florida 3A State fourth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
70. Cardinal O'Hara PA (36) - Pennsylvania 3A State third place; Northeast fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
71. W.W.P. South NJ (NR) - New Jersey MOC third place; Northeast sixth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
72. Dublin Coffman OH (NR) - OH D1 Region 3 sixth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
73. Festus MO (NR) - Missouri Class 3 State Runner-up; Midwest 22nd place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
74. Conestoga PA (NR) - Pennsylvania 3A State seventh place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
75. Cardinal Gibbons NC (NR) - North Carolina 3A State Runner-up; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
76. Tatnall DE (NR) - Delaware D2 State Champion; Southeast eighth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
77. Long Beach Poly CA (NR) - CIF-SS Division 1 tenth place; DNQ (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 2/7)
78. Bentonville AR (NR) - Arkansas 7A State Runner-up; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
79. Bellarmine Prep WA (NR) - Washington 4A State fifth place; Northwest ninth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
80. West Springfield VA (NR) - VA 6A North Region ninth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
81. Dulaney MD (NR) - Maryland 4A State Runner-up; Southeast 18th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
82. Cooper KY (NR) - Kentucky 3A State 11th place; Southeast 19th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 6/7)
83. Mountain View UT (NR) - Utah 4A State seventh place; Southwest Open Runner-up (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
84. Pleasant Valley IA (NR) - Iowa 4A State fifth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
85. Bismarck ND (NR) - North Dakota A State Champion; Heartland seventh place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
86. De La Salle CA (NR) - CIF-NCS Division 1 Champion; California D1 seventh place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
87. Marietta GA (NR) - Georgia 6A State fifth place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 6/7)
88. Lawton Chiles FL (NR) - Florida 3A State Runner-up; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
89. Midlothian VA (26) - Virginia 4A State Champion; Southeast fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
90. Daniel Boone TN (NR) - Tennessee 3A State Runner-up; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
91. Hopkins MN (NR) - MN 2A Section 6 third place; Heartland 28th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
92. Summit NJ (NR) - New Jersey MOC 13th place; Northeast 19th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 4/5, 5/7)
93. Fort Collins CO (NR) - Colorado 5A State Runner-up; Southwest 13th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
94. Hersey IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State 11th place; Midwest 14th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 2/5, 3/7)
95. University WV (NR) - West Virginia 3A State Champion; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
96. Los Gatos CA (NR) - CIF-CCS Division 2 Runner-up; California D2 19th place (DNQ NXN); Returns 5/5, 7/7)
97. Naperville North IL (NR) - Illinois 3A State ninth place; Midwest Open fourth place (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 4/7)
98. Traverse City Central MI (NR) - Michigan D1 State third place; Did not compete (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
99. Carmel IN (5) - Indiana State Champion; Midwest Champion (#5 NXN); Returns 1/5, 2/7)
100. Cheyenne Mountain CO (NR) - Colorado 4A State sixth place; Southwest Open Champion (DNQ NXN); Returns 3/5, 5/7)
watchout

agonyforest, on , said:

http://www.prepcaltr...ed-by-the-meat/

I know this takes a lot of work, but just saying some teams that aren't on here have beat teams in the top half already this season.


Preseason rankings aren't perfect, you should expect some unranked teams to beat ranked teams. Palos Verdes got serious consideration, and it looks like Saugus was missing a runner (their projected #3 Ryan Tate). Plus, it's extremely early in the season... these rankings are based on what teams did at the END of XC season, and the progress shown during track. While Palos Verdes is, like Saugus, a team that tends to run well throughout the regular season and also during the championship season, an early season meet is still an early season meet.

Congrats to Palos Verdes on a great start to the season!
agonyforest
http://www.prepcaltr...ed-by-the-meat/

I know this takes a lot of work, but just saying some teams that aren't on here have beat teams in the top half already this season.
watchout
Also, I'll post summary details about the teams later today to give people more of a feel of where they are coming from (at least as far as Post season XC last fall)
watchout
Preseason rankings are heavily tilted towards best marks by each athlete over the last year (from State XC onward) rather than gut feeling or averaged performances or XC/track only outlook.

For the national rankings, I do give some thought to a program's history of success at that level (NXN), but otherwise it's mostly these factors (in order of importance):
1. Within their region, who looks like they would come out on top if the top X teams raced?
2. Within their region, which would be the best teams in a national field (historical NXN scoring)?
3. Following their regional rankings, which team in the nation would be the best in a national field (historical NXN scoring)?

(and within the region, the #3 factor I look at is how the team would fare if ALL the regional in my database were in the same race - a mass merge of the 70-110 teams I took a look at)

All that establishes my first draft with teams in their proper tiers. If two or more teams are really close, I'll consider moving them around (within that tier) if it feels right, but the vast majority of the time I just leave the teams in the order their returning times suggest.
cerutty fan
Rob, I'm curious what you based your rankings on. Would love to hear how much weight was based on actual times run versus gut feeling of what teams are going to improve the most.

I find this list quite motivating, thanks for taking the time to put it together.
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