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National Team Rankings - 10/17 Boys - XC - DyeStat

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DyeStat.com   Oct 17th 2014, 6:55pm
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American Fork heads into UT state meet No. 1

by Rob Monroe


Boys Top 40, Oct. 17


1. American Fork UT (1): 1st Region IV UT; 1st Westlake UT; 1st Nebo UT

 
2. Fayetteville-Manlius NY (5): 1st Manhattan NY; Idle; 1st McQuaid NY


3. Davis UT (6): 1st Region I UT; Idle; 1st Bob Firman ID


4. Great Oak CA (4): 1st Clovis CA; Idle; 1st Nike Pre-Nats OR


5. Liverpool NY (8): 2nd Manhattan NY; Idle; 2nd McQuaid NY


6. Timpanogos UT (15): 1st Region VII UT; Idle; 2nd Bob Firman ID


7. St. Anthony's NY (29): 3rd Manhattan NY; 1st St. Anthony's NY; 1st Carlisle PA


8. Christian Brothers Academy NJ (7): 4th Manhattan NY; Idle; 1st Bowdoin NY


9. La Salle Academy RI (3): Idle; 1st Great American NC; 2nd Bowdoin NY


10. Hinsdale Central IL (22): Idle; Idle; Idle


11. Wayzata MN (10): 1st Lake Conference MN; Idle; 1st Roy Griak MN


12. Saugus CA (11): Idle; Idle; 3rd Roy Griak MN


13. Lake Braddock Secondary VA (21): 1st Disney FL; Idle; DCXC DC


14. Burroughs (Burbank) CA (27): Idle; 1st Staub Barnes CA; Idle


15. Jenks OK (9): Idle; 1st Pre-State OK; 1st Cowboy Jamboree OK


16. Loyola CA (12): Idle; San Gabriel Valley CA; Bell-Jeff CA


17. Summit OR (24): 1st George Fox OR; 1st Oxford OR; 3rd Nike Pre-Nationals OR


18. Sandburg IL (17): Idle; 1st Peoria Central IL; Idle


19. College Park TX (2): 1st College Park TX; 2nd Nike South TX; 1st Brenham TX


20. Canyon (Anaheim) CA (NR): 2nd Clovis CA; Idle; Idle


21. Claremont CA (28): 3rd Clovis CA; Idle; Idle


22. Southlake Carroll TX (19): 4th Clovis CA; 1st Nike South TX; Idle


23. Madera South CA (16): 5th Clovis CA; Idle; 1st Golden Eagle CA


24. Desert Vista AZ (NR): Idle; 1st Desert Twilight AZ; Idle


25. McQueen NV (NR): 9th Clovis CA; 1st Reed NV; 4th Stanford CA


26. Neuqua Valley IL (NR): 1st Naperville Twilight IL; 1st Locktoberfest IL; Idle


27. Festus MO (30): Idle; 1st Chile Pepper AR; 1st Hancock MO


28. Desert Hills UT (34): 1st Region IX UT; 1st Cedar UT; 2nd Nebo UT


29. Ogden UT (35): 1st Region V UT; Idle; 3rd Bob Firman ID


30. Kamiakin WA (14): Idle; 1st Sunfair WA; Idle


31. North Central WA (20): 1st Richland WA; Idle; 5th Bob Firman ID


32. Central Catholic OR (13): 11th Clovis CA; Idle; 7th Nike Pre-Nationals OR


33. Carmel IN (23): 1st Noblesville Sectional IN; Idle; 1st Metro Conference IN


34. West Lafayette IN (25): 1st West Lafayette Sectional IN; Idle; 2nd Culver IN


35. Waterford Mott MI (NR): Idle; 1st Waterford Mott MI; 1st Oakland Co. MI


36. Don Bosco NJ (31): 7th Manhattan NY; Idle; 3rd Bowdoin NY


37. Severna Park MD (NR): 1st Chaptico MD; Idle; 1st Bull Run MD


38. Clovis North CA (NR): 8th Clovis CA; Idle; 1st Mt. Whitney CA


39. Broughton NC (NR): Idle; Idle; 1st Greensboro NC


40. Columbus North IN (26): 1st Brown County Sectional IN; Idle; 3rd Culver IN

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25 comment(s)
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

Sorry I didn't reply to your comment on the Utah states sooner Rob. I can't get on from my home computer, only from work.

If AF thrashes the #3 and #6 teams at states (although apparently it would be an indirect thrashing on one of them) then I would agree that AF could move back ahead of F-M in the NEXT ranking.

You fail to acknowledge the difference between a rating and a ranking.
A rating can and should take all information available and acts more as a predictive tool.
A ranking should acknowledge the snapshot of where a team is at a particular moment in the season and shouldn't serve as a predictive tool.

If you want to rate AF as #1 right now, I can't argue -- it's your rating system.

But if you want to RANK them as #1 BEFORE Wednesday -- sorry you're just wrong.

Right now F-M has performed better than AF and P.S. right now Cherry Hill East has performed better than Don Bosco and should be ranked higher although still might rate lower.

Either way I appreciate your hard and exhaustive work. I just think there's a difference that you don't seem to acknowledge.

And yes I think head to head trumps any rating or ranking. As Bill Parcells once said, you are what your record says you are.


AF is RANKED #1 because they have (IMO) run better than FM, and NOT because I think they will run better (although I do think there's a good chance they will continue to run better, since it's not like FM isn't running great).

You say that I could "rate" but not "rank" American Fork as #1 - WHY? Is it because they haven't run at VCP, or is it because they haven't raced a Top-10 ranked team?

BTW, did you know that AF beat CBA in 2012 (running 11 seconds/man faster), when CBA was just as fast at VCP as they were last year? And did you know that AF ran 15 seconds per man faster this year than their 2012 team did at their region meet (both @ AF)? Yes, I can play that "look at what they did in previous years" game as well.

FM isn't ranked behind AF based only on the strength of what FM has done, but rather because of what both AF and FM have done. BOTH have been extremely impressive this year, both are very strong programs, both returned great teams from last year, and both are undefeated this year. I don't see any reason (aside from regional bias, I suppose) as to why one team HAS to be ranked ahead of the other - they BOTH have done something to earn the top spot, I just give AF a slight edge so far.
Seaverfan
Sorry I didn't reply to your comment on the Utah states sooner Rob. I can't get on from my home computer, only from work.

If AF thrashes the #3 and #6 teams at states (although apparently it would be an indirect thrashing on one of them) then I would agree that AF could move back ahead of F-M in the NEXT ranking.

You fail to acknowledge the difference between a rating and a ranking.
A rating can and should take all information available and acts more as a predictive tool.
A ranking should acknowledge the snapshot of where a team is at a particular moment in the season and shouldn't serve as a predictive tool.

If you want to rate AF as #1 right now, I can't argue -- it's your rating system.

But if you want to RANK them as #1 BEFORE Wednesday -- sorry you're just wrong.

Right now F-M has performed better than AF and P.S. right now Cherry Hill East has performed better than Don Bosco and should be ranked higher although still might rate lower.

Either way I appreciate your hard and exhaustive work. I just think there's a difference that you don't seem to acknowledge.

And yes I think head to head trumps any rating or ranking. As Bill Parcells once said, you are what your record says you are.
watchout

billatc, on , said:

Marietta ran very well - keeping a tight group despite it being a slow course - that might have been Friedman's best race this year - based on my experience running in NJ in HS and coaching here in Ga - its likely +/- 5 sec's from Holmdel on an average day (with it more likely on the slower side). If they continue to improve, Marietta will def be a threat to move on to NXN. Their biggest advantage is inter-changeable parts as they have had 7 people all run in the top 5 at one point or another and do so with no real drop off.

Quick question,- surprised that Cherry Hill East is not getting more consideration despite beating Bosco handily in NYC. I am guessing its a lack of quality performances behind that as well as a 4/5 that is a bit too gapped from their 3rd runner. Will be interesting to see if the lack of racing will work to their advantage at the end of the season.


Yeah, I have Coach Woods being ~8 seconds slower than Holmdel. Good to see we are pretty much in agreement.

And yes, you nailed it in regards to Cherry Hill East as well.
billatc
Marietta ran very well - keeping a tight group despite it being a slow course - that might have been Friedman's best race this year - based on my experience running in NJ in HS and coaching here in Ga - its likely +/- 5 sec's from Holmdel on an average day (with it more likely on the slower side). If they continue to improve, Marietta will def be a threat to move on to NXN. Their biggest advantage is inter-changeable parts as they have had 7 people all run in the top 5 at one point or another and do so with no real drop off.

Quick question,- surprised that Cherry Hill East is not getting more consideration despite beating Bosco handily in NYC. I am guessing its a lack of quality performances behind that as well as a 4/5 that is a bit too gapped from their 3rd runner. Will be interesting to see if the lack of racing will work to their advantage at the end of the season.
watchout
Marietta dominated at Coach Woods today - winning with 51 points against the best in Georgia; notable St. Pius X was runner-up with 151.
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

My mistake -- old course record was in 2012 when NXN was held in a mudbath where no one broke 17. CBA had won in 2011.

No matter -- Last year's results are still a non sequitor. Once American Fork leaves UT (they haven't raced outside of the state as far as I know) then we can find out how good they are. F-M thrashed, thrashed FOUR teams in the current top 10.

F-M right now is clearly #1 in the nation.


And the closest team anyone has been to AF was the 24-87 margin back to US#28 Desert Hills at Nebo - they've thrashed everyone they've raced to date.

You are right, FM has beaten more elite teams so far this year. AF's big chance is next Wednesday at Utah State, where they race US#3 Davis for the first time this year, and have US#6 Timpanogos racing in a different classification as well. I'm sure we can agree that IF beating highly ranked teams means as much as your post suggests, AF beating 2 other Top 6 teams including the #3 team is just as impressive if not more impressive than beating 3 other teams in the top 9 with the closest team ranked US#5.
watchout

Seaverfan, on , said:

Agree 1000%

What Gig Harbor did to CBA last year is a non sequitor since the CBA record was not set last year but was set the year CBA went on to win the National championships.

Fortunately it will come out in the wash (or now on the golf course) but for F-M not to be ranked #1 now under Any Set of circumstances is silly (Unless American Fork just demolished a course record on the Northwest's oldest and most raced course).

Paul Schwartz


I absolutely agree, it doesn't matter what Gig Harbor did to CBA last year. What matters is how good AF is this year, and how good FM is this year, and simple measures such as team times on Course A gives an incomplete and flawed look at how good a team has been this year.
watchout

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

Not everyone has run at ANY course in the nation. EVERY course in high school XC is a regional course, with the exception of Portland Meadows, which was a total crap shoot.

Who the hell runs at Nebo? Or Westlake?

If this is your logic, then the rankings are a farce.


I never said that any course has ever had any team ever compete on it. Point to where I did? I said that running a course record on Course X only shows how that team (roughly) compares to teams from years past that have run on that course (and only on that day).

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

More great teams have run at Manhattan over the years than any course which AF has run at.

Take a look at the performances by FM this year. Not just Manhattan - which was the greatest race by a hs team ever. But all the other ones have results which show them to be as good as the top teams in every year going back for the past 10-15 years.


I have. Have you taken a look at all of the performances by AF this year? BOTH teams look to be as good as national champions from years past.

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

As king mentioned, they destroyed a CR set by CBA last year - a team beaten only by Gig Harbor - and most observers would classify those two teams last year as two of the best teams ever in high school history. FM at Manhattan didn't edge the performance, they didn't beat it by a good margin, they crushed it.


Point to where I ever said otherwise.

GeorgieTheK, on , said:

FM was 4th last year at NXN, and returned 6 of 7. It's not like they are a team that came out of the blue. I don't really know what it would take for FM to be #1.


I realize that FM didn't come "out of the blue"; most of the summer, I had figured that they were going to be my preseason US#1. It's not like American Fork has come out of the blue either - they have been one of the 3 most successful teams at NXN over the last 7 years, behind only North Central WA and Arcadia CA. Last year, they finished a whole 14 points behind FM, and though they graduated more varsity runners they reloaded from a very strong JV group.

Both programs have been very good. Both programs are running incredible this year. I haven't - and wouldn't - disagree with any of your points that FM is looking like one of the best teams ever; the rankings aren't about how good FM is, it's about how FM compares to AF - which is also looking like one of the best teams ever.
watchout

King999, on , said:

I have no idea how a team that breaks a 45 meaningful tiem tested years' 5 man avg by a GREAT team by 12 secs per guy cannot be U.S. #1


Because, as I said, that is only a tool to describe how the team compares to other teams that have run on that course. It says nothing (by itself) about how that team compares to teams from the rest of the nation, that has never run on the course.

King999, on , said:

Using aggregate times and comparing them across venues and conditions is a really challenging method to use


Absolutely. That's why I don't use aggregate times and compare them across venues when doing my rankings.

King999, on , said:

It's the eye test, CBA was second at NXN and ran 12:44, FM didn;t just nip that, they thrashed that


Yes, it was a great race. I never said otherwise.

King999, on , said:

The methodology of comparing teams from different years, different days, different conditions, Is flawed unless the performance is completely on its' own, dominating and earth shattering, that is what FM just did


Absolutely agree that comparing teams from different years, days, and conditions is flawed. That's one of the many reasons why I don't look at single team performances as the base my rankings.
Seaverfan
My mistake -- old course record was in 2012 when NXN was held in a mudbath where no one broke 17. CBA had won in 2011.

No matter -- Last year's results are still a non sequitor. Once American Fork leaves UT (they haven't raced outside of the state as far as I know) then we can find out how good they are. F-M thrashed, thrashed FOUR teams in the current top 10.

F-M right now is clearly #1 in the nation.
Seaverfan
Agree 1000%

What Gig Harbor did to CBA last year is a non sequitor since the CBA record was not set last year but was set the year CBA went on to win the National championships.

Fortunately it will come out in the wash (or now on the golf course) but for F-M not to be ranked #1 now under Any Set of circumstances is silly (Unless American Fork just demolished a course record on the Northwest's oldest and most raced course).

Paul Schwartz
GeorgieTheK

watchout, on , said:

I figured that would come up, but that's a more simple answer that people can probably assume more readily: Not everyone has run at VCP, so while that might make FM the best NE team to date, it says nothing about how they stack up to the rest of the nation. I think AF has a stronger #5 while being similar enough throughout the rest of the lineup to give AF the edge.



Not everyone has run at ANY course in the nation. EVERY course in high school XC is a regional course, with the exception of Portland Meadows, which was a total crap shoot.

Who the hell runs at Nebo? Or Westlake?

If this is your logic, then the rankings are a farce.

More great teams have run at Manhattan over the years than any course which AF has run at.

Take a look at the performances by FM this year. Not just Manhattan - which was the greatest race by a hs team ever. But all the other ones have results which show them to be as good as the top teams in every year going back for the past 10-15 years.

As king mentioned, they destroyed a CR set by CBA last year - a team beaten only by Gig Harbor - and most observers would classify those two teams last year as two of the best teams ever in high school history. FM at Manhattan didn't edge the performance, they didn't beat it by a good margin, they crushed it.


FM was 4th last year at NXN, and returned 6 of 7. It's not like they are a team that came out of the blue. I don't really know what it would take for FM to be #1.
King999
I have no idea how a team that breaks a 45 meaningful tiem tested years' 5 man avg by a GREAT team by 12 secs per guy cannot be U.S. #1

Using aggregate times and comparing them across venues and conditions is a really challenging method to use

It's the eye test, CBA was second at NXN and ran 12:44, FM didn;t just nip that, they thrashed that

The methodology of comparing teams from different years, different days, different conditions, Is flawed unless the performance is completely on its' own, dominating and earth shattering, that is what FM just did
Heracles
Hopefully SLC Boys step it up, because I think they could have taken 2nd at Clovis. Canal/Kemps have run slightly off mark the past two meets (Nike South, and now Clovis), and Timou was most certainly off point.

Hopefully come NXN time they get it together, because I don't see College Park beating them this season at all (both are good teams, but I still see SLC's depth prevailing regardless, in the case their top runners drop off too much).
watchout

DontStopPre, on , said:

Why does Kamiakin drop so dramatically? They've been more than impressive every invite they've raced.


Other teams have been more impressive recently. It didn't help that Kamiakin had some of their worst races at Sunfair (their only recent result), though none of that drastic and it isn't surprising given that it's a flighted race (less competition). Don't get me wrong, Sunfair was still a good race - just not as impressive as Sundodger or Tracy Walters, and other teams have caught up/passed them. I expect Kamiakin will move up the rankings again after the Eastern Regional (if not after the MCC meet). VERY little gap between Kamiakin and the Top 15/20.
watchout

hedyd4u, on , said:

The record was CBA-NJ 12:44.34 they were the best team in the nation when they ran that time last year F-M 12:32.76 this year I don't think American Fork is as good as the best teams last year so them being number 1 makes no sense.


Gig Harbor beat CBA last year (and looked better throughout the year)...

I DO think AF could be as good as the best teams last year.

EDIT: By the way, since you guys like comparing single races so much to determine who is better... how about this for a comparison of AF '14 <-> Gig Harbor '13; Gig Harbor '13 <-> CBA '13; FM '14 <-> CBA '13:

US#1/NXN#1 Gig Harbor WA ran 79:08.5 at Bob Firman last year; Lehi UT ran 82:20.5 at Bob Firman this year (4.0% slower)
American Fork UT ran 79:52.6 at Region IV last week; Lehi UT ran 83:28.7 at Region IV last week (4.5% slower)

Lehi was 0.5% closer in time to US#1/NXN#1 Gig Harbor WA than they were to American Fork UT.



US#1/NXN#1 Gig Harbor WA ran 77:53 at NXN last year to US#2/NXN#2 Christian Brothers NJ's 78:59 (1.4% faster)
US#2/NXN#2 Christian Brothers NJ ran 63:41.7 at Manhattan last year; Fayetteville-Manlius NY ran 62:43.8 (1.5% faster)



Fayetteville-Manlius is, using the above comparison, about 0.1% faster than Gig Harbor was last year.
American Fork is, using the above comparison, about 0.5% faster than Gig Harbor was last year.
Ergo, judging by those races, American Fork must be about 0.4% faster than Fayetteville-Manlius this year.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT HOW MY RANKINGS ARE DONE, this is only to show - using similar logic to what's been used on this board - how American Fork most definitely has a case for being US#1.
DontStopPre
Why does Kamiakin drop so dramatically? They've been more than impressive every invite they've raced.
hedyd4u
The record was CBA-NJ 12:44.34 they were the best team in the nation when they ran that time last year F-M 12:32.76 this year I don't think American Fork is as good as the best teams last year so them being number 1 makes no sense.
watchout

DougB, on , said:

The biggest question of the week is why F-M isn't No. 1 after smashing the Manhattan five-man average record.


I figured that would come up, but that's a more simple answer that people can probably assume more readily: Not everyone has run at VCP, so while that might make FM the best NE team to date, it doesn't necessarily mean they are better than the rest of the nation. I think AF has a slightly stronger #5 while being similar enough throughout the rest of the lineup to give AF the edge.

EDIT: For more info...

I think Millar has the edge over Jacklin, but I don't think it's all that big of a gap. Remember, Jacklin was one of the best in the Southwest last year (#3 at Utah State, #3 at NXN-SW, but was a bit further back at NXN though still Top 50). This year, both runners have been excellent: Jacklin broke at least one course record and has only lost one race (to his teammate at Nebo), while Millar has run the #3 time (I'm assuming) at Manhattan and was right behind Marsten at McQuaid. I would give the edge to Millar, but both have been outstanding.

Both teams have excellent #2's - I would give the edge to Casey Clinger (AF) by a fair margin, though.

Both teams have excellent #3's - I would give the edge to AF's McKay Johns.

Both teams have excellent #4's - I would give the edge to FM's Peter Ryan.

Both teams have excellent #5's - it's close, but I'd give the edge to AF's Joseph Simmons.



Both teams are outstanding, both teams have been breaking or challenging strong course records, and it would be understandable for either to be US#1. I think AF has been just a little better, which is why they got the nod.
watchout

DougB, on , said:

The biggest question of the week is why F-M isn't No. 1 after smashing the Manhattan five-man average record.


I figured that would come up, but that's a more simple answer that people can probably assume more readily: Not everyone has run at VCP, so while that might make FM the best NE team to date, it says nothing about how they stack up to the rest of the nation. I think AF has a stronger #5 while being similar enough throughout the rest of the lineup to give AF the edge.
DougB
The biggest question of the week is why F-M isn't No. 1 after smashing the Manhattan five-man average record.
watchout
By the way, to answer what should be the biggest question there is for this week: the reason Hinsdale Central moved up despite not racing in the last 3 weeks is that I am constantly reassessing meets, and (given the results of the season to date) their races at First to the Finish and Hornet Red Devil both grade out as better than originally thought.
watchout

NCRunFan, on , said:

Would just like to point out that Broughton (NC) won the Knights Crossing Invitational in VA, Adidas XC Challenge (NXR SE Course) as well as the Hagan Stone Invite in Greensboro. And if you take their times from Adidas XC Challenge and plug them into Great American ROC, they end up beating La Salle.


Yes indeed, but I can only list so many accomplishments at once for the teams, so I stick to listing the results of the last 3 weeks. BTW, what's especially impressive about what you mention is that the Adidas Challenge was a slower meet (I'm guessing worse conditions - maybe warmer?); however, as I've said before, these rankings are based on multiple races over the course of the season, and one snapshot might not best represent the whole picture (e.g., that was Broughton's best race of the year and the worst of La Salle's three races). Most of the teams that are ranked are close enough that it doesn't take much to change the order (and most of the bubble is similarly close to the back half of the ranked teams).
watchout
Boys Teams on the Bubble:
(alphabetical order by region)

California (4): Bellarmine Prep, Martin Luther King, Palos Verdes, Westview
Heartland (1): Sioux Falls Lincoln SD
Midwest (6): Hilliard Davidson OH, Lyons Township IL, Northville MI, Rockford MI, St. Xavier OH, West Plains MO
New York (0)
Northeast (2): Malvern Prep PA, Conestoga PA
Northwest (3): Mountain View ID, Skyview WA, Tahoma WA
South (3): El Paso Eastwood TX, Rogers AR, The Woodlands TX
Southeast (3): Daniel Boone TN, Dulaney MD, Marietta GA
Southwest (3): Corona del Sol AZ, Lehi UT, Page AZ

How far off the national rankings are they? Well, let's just say that the back end of the top 40 would be projected to score around 260-265 at a meet like NXN in previous years (on a good day), while the teams on the bubble would be projected to score under 300.
NCRunFan
Would just like to point out that Broughton (NC) won the Knights Crossing Invitational in VA, Adidas XC Challenge (NXR SE Course) as well as the Hagan Stone Invite in Greensboro. And if you take their times from Adidas XC Challenge and plug them into Great American ROC, they end up beating La Salle.
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