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Regional Rankings Girls XC 2014 - 11/6 - DyeStat

Published by
DyeStat.com   Nov 6th 2014, 4:33pm
Comments

By Rob Monroe

Regional Top 5, 11/6


Northwest Girls -
1. Summit OR
2. Coeur d'Alene ID
3. Issaquah WA
4. Camas WA
5. Sunset OR

 

Southwest Girls -
1. American Fork UT
2. Davis UT
3. Desert Vista AZ
4. Fort Collins CO
5. Monarch CO

 

South Girls -
1. Marcus TX
2. Hebron TX
3. Cinco Ranch TX
4. Kingwood TX
5. New Braunfels TX

 

Midwest Girls -
1. Carmel IN
2. Naperville North IL
3. Birmingham Seaholm MI
4. Glenbard West IL
5. Centerville OH

 

Heartland Girls -
1. Wayzata MN
2. Edina MN
3. Willmar MN
4. Minnetonka MN
5. East Ridge MN

 

Northeast Girls -
1. Pennsbury PA
2. Coe-Brown Academy NH
3. Unionville PA
4. La Salle Academy RI
5. Tolland CT

 

New York Girls -
1. Fayetteville-Manlius
2. Saratoga Springs
3. Shenendehowa
4. Suffern
5. Corning

 

Southeast Girls -
1. Blacksburg VA
2. Green Hope NC
3. Cardinal Gibbons NC
4. Lake Braddock VA
5. Morristown West TN 

 

California (from DyeStatCAL)
1. Great Oak (Southern Section Division I) 
2. Saugus (Southern Section Division II)
3. Campolindo (North Coast Section Division III)
4. Palos Verdes (Southern Section Division III)
5. Capistrano Valley (Southern Section Division II)

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6 comment(s)
watchout
Yeah, just got back from the WA State meet so I haven't looked into the results yet, but I imagine that if GBW and HC ran decent races that Palatine will be ranked pretty well (don't know if they'll be ahead of Birmingham Seaholm or Centerville, who was missing their #3 at Palatine if I remember correctly, but Palatine will probably be ranked well nationally after their state meet)
dcox
You were right about Naperville North improving. Illinois State Meet Results: Naperville North 73, Palatine 91, Glenbard West 94, Hinsdale Central 137. Naperville and Palatine did beat the others on the 4-5-6 runners as you suggested (I also concur about that the St. Charles Sectional course was shorter/faster). I change my opinion to agree with your 1-2 Midwest ranking of Carmel and Naperville North. Palatine should also be considered for a high Midwest ranking. Their only defeats were in September to Glenbard West and Hinsdale Central. They also beat Ohio State champion Centerville earlier this season.

Naperville North and Palatine are planning to compete at NXN-Midwest next weekend, while Glenbard West and Hinsdale Central are not planning to make the trip.
dcox

watchout, on , said:

Up until last weekend, GBW was my IL#1 for the same reasons you mention (winning all their meets, but more importantly looking dominant in doing so). I just thought that NN has run really well the last couple weeks and might have passed them. In particular, I think their freshman Sarah Schmitt has improved dramatically over the course of the season, and others are hitting their stride at the right time to seriously challenge for the state title.

Also, food for thought (though note that this is NOT how I arrived at my rankings) - NN's team averaged 17:20 w/ a 35 second spread at Leroy Oaks for their Sectional championship, which was 32 seconds faster per runner than Hinsdale Central ran at the St. Charles Invite a couple weeks ago. GBW was 41 seconds faster w/ a 75 second spread at WSC BUT that was when HC was without their #1, which cost them about 2 minutes in total team time (~24 seconds per runner). One COULD suggest that implies that based on recent results NN is about 15 seconds per runner faster than GBW and with a significantly tighter spread... though I think the teams are MUCH closer than that (in my opinion, GBW still has the faster team time -- I think the St. Charles Sectional course was running ~20 seconds faster than the St. Charles Invite course, and neither race perfectly represents how good the runners are -- but I think that spread is going to make all the difference).
ILDistanceFan
To further this discussion: The St Charles Sectional course seems a bit fast. But just a bit. Naperville North's times were overall slightly faster this year than the same meet/course in 2012, when they were IL state champs and Midwest runner-up to Carmel. Glenbard West's team structure is slightly different. They have more firepower up front - Lindsay Graham is on an absolute tear, having broken a couple of Madeline Perez 2012 course records. Their #2 & 3 are likely to finish ahead of NN's pack. But their 4-5-6 seem a bit behind, and maybe not quite as strong as last year.

These distinct patterns are likely to have different effects at IL state, where NN should give GW a real challenge, versus at NXN-Midwest, where I think GW's front 3 will have more of an advantage over NN's pack.

But, we shall soon see.


watchout, on , said:

Up until last weekend, GBW was my IL#1 for the same reasons you mention (winning all their meets, but more importantly looking dominant in doing so). I just thought that NN has run really well the last couple weeks and might have passed them. In particular, I think their freshman Sarah Schmitt has improved dramatically over the course of the season, and others are hitting their stride at the right time to seriously challenge for the state title.

Also, food for thought (though note that this is NOT how I arrived at my rankings) - NN's team averaged 17:20 w/ a 35 second spread at Leroy Oaks for their Sectional championship, which was 32 seconds faster per runner than Hinsdale Central ran at the St. Charles Invite a couple weeks ago. GBW was 41 seconds faster w/ a 75 second spread at WSC BUT that was when HC was without their #1, which cost them about 2 minutes in total team time (~24 seconds per runner). One COULD suggest that implies that based on recent results NN is about 15 seconds per runner faster than GBW and with a significantly tighter spread... though I think the teams are MUCH closer than that (in my opinion, GBW still has the faster team time -- I think the St. Charles Sectional course was running ~20 seconds faster than the St. Charles Invite course, and neither race perfectly represents how good the runners are -- but I think that spread is going to make all the difference).
watchout

dcox, on , said:

I understand you use a quantitative model, but I have to disagree with how you have slotted the Illinois teams in the midwest region. Almost everyone in Illinois agrees Glenbard West is clearly the best team in the state. They have won all of the big meets (even short-handed) and are ranked #1 in all of the polls in the state, including the state coaches poll (GBW receiving all of the first place votes), and the Dyestat Illinois poll. I feel Glenbard West should be #2 (behind Carmel, IN) in the midwest, while Naperville North is certainly in the discussion as one of the other top teams in the midwest. They will battle each other and several other strong teams in the IL state meet this weekend.

Congratulations to Centerville, OH. They took on the challenge of travelling to Palatine, Illinois to run against several top teams, and they returned to Ohio and captured their state championship. Well done!


Up until last weekend, GBW was my IL#1 for the same reasons you mention (winning all their meets, but more importantly looking dominant in doing so). I just thought that NN has run really well the last couple weeks and might have passed them. In particular, I think their freshman Sarah Schmitt has improved dramatically over the course of the season, and others are hitting their stride at the right time to seriously challenge for the state title.

Also, food for thought (though note that this is NOT how I arrived at my rankings) - NN's team averaged 17:20 w/ a 35 second spread at Leroy Oaks for their Sectional championship, which was 32 seconds faster per runner than Hinsdale Central ran at the St. Charles Invite a couple weeks ago. GBW was 41 seconds faster w/ a 75 second spread at WSC BUT that was when HC was without their #1, which cost them about 2 minutes in total team time (~24 seconds per runner). One COULD suggest that implies that based on recent results NN is about 15 seconds per runner faster than GBW and with a significantly tighter spread... though I think the teams are MUCH closer than that (in my opinion, GBW still has the faster team time -- I think the St. Charles Sectional course was running ~20 seconds faster than the St. Charles Invite course, and neither race perfectly represents how good the runners are -- but I think that spread is going to make all the difference).
dcox
I understand you use a quantitative model, but I have to disagree with how you have slotted the Illinois teams in the midwest region. Almost everyone in Illinois agrees Glenbard West is clearly the best team in the state. They have won all of the big meets (even short-handed) and are ranked #1 in all of the polls in the state, including the state coaches poll (GBW receiving all of the first place votes), and the Dyestat Illinois poll. I feel Glenbard West should be #2 (behind Carmel, IN) in the midwest, while Naperville North is certainly in the discussion as one of the other top teams in the midwest. They will battle each other and several other strong teams in the IL state meet this weekend.

Congratulations to Centerville, OH. They took on the challenge of travelling to Palatine, Illinois to run against several top teams, and they returned to Ohio and captured their state championship. Well done!
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